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Supra du Quebec v Vancouver FC

Supra du Quebec

2–2Full time

Vancouver FC

Canadian Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Supra du Quebec 2–2 Vancouver FC SUPRA DU QUEBEC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Supra du Quebec win~~45%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.845

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 48 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Supra du Quebec win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Supra du Quebec was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Supra du Quebec v Vancouver FC
6′⚽ GOAL · 7' Supra du Quebec 0–0 Vancouver FC · Loic Adrien Kwemi
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Supra du Quebec 1–0 Vancouver FC · Loic Adrien Kwemi
20′Supra du Quebec ahead on 7′ through Loic Adrien Kwemi. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Matteo.Campagna · Vancouver FC
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Supra du Quebec win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
45′SECOND HALF Supra du Quebec 1–0 Vancouver FC
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Luis Toomey · Vancouver FC
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Supra du Quebec 1–1 Vancouver FC · Loic Adrien Kwemi
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Supra du Quebec 1–1 Vancouver FC · Terran Campbell
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Supra du Quebec · On: Clement Bayiha · Off: Ibrahim Conde Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Supra du Quebec · On: Clement Bayiha · Off: Ibrahim Conde Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vancouver FC · On: Lys Mousset · Off: Terran Campbell Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vancouver FC · On: Damiano Pecile · Off: Emrick Fotsing Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Supra du Quebec · On: S. Mlah · Off: Aboubacar Sissoko Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vancouver FC · On: Benjamin Lee · Off: Luis Toomey Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Supra du Quebec 1–1 Vancouver FC · S. Mlah
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vancouver FC · On: Abdoulaye·Ouattara · Off: Damiano Pecile Corrected
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Supra du Quebec 2–1 Vancouver FC · S. Mlah
91′⚽ GOAL · 7' Supra du Quebec 2–1 Vancouver FC · Loic Adrien Kwemi (assist Ibrahim Conde)
91′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Matteo.Campagna · Vancouver FC
91′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Luis Toomey · Vancouver FC
91′⚽ GOAL · 59' Supra du Quebec 2–1 Vancouver FC · Terran Campbell (assist Emrick Fotsing)
91′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Supra du Quebec · On: R. Bey · Off: Omar El Kalkouli Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Supra du Quebec · On: Clement Bayiha · Off: Ibrahim Conde Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vancouver FC · On: Lys Mousset · Off: Terran Campbell Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vancouver FC · On: Damiano Pecile · Off: Emrick Fotsing Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Supra du Quebec · On: S. Mlah · Off: Aboubacar Sissoko Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vancouver FC · On: Abdoulaye·Ouattara · Off: Damiano Pecile Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vancouver FC · On: Benjamin Lee · Off: Luis Toomey Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 88' Supra du Quebec 2–1 Vancouver FC · S. Mlah
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Vancouver FC · On: Aboubacar Traore · Off: Mohamed Amissi Corrected
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Benjamin Lee · Vancouver FC
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Zachary Brault Guillard · Supra du Quebec
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Supra du Quebec 2–2 Vancouver FC · S. Mlah
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Supra du Quebec 2–2 Vancouver FC · Matteo.Campagna
FTFULL TIME Supra du Quebec 2–2 Vancouver FC
FTSupra du Quebec 2–2 Vancouver FC · Supra du Quebec win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Supra du Quebec win45%

Draw24%

Vancouver FC win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Supra du Quebec

Formation not confirmed

32 J. Milli

15 Z. Brault-Guillard

2 C. Auguste

4 M. Chretien

11 D. Abzi

33 A. Sissoko

6 A. Biello

9 L. A. Kwemi

10 S. Rea

8 O. El Kalkouli

99 I. Conde

Coach · –

Substitutes

80 · M. Diop

3 · T. Lebeuf

49 · E. Awonongbadje

24 · S. Mlah

77 · R. Bey

92 · N. Santos

12 · C. Bayiha

Vancouver FC

4-2-3-1

1 C. Irving

3 M. Doner

5 M. Campagna

30 T. Field

23 K. Proctor

4 I. Ssewankambo

8 L. Toomey

7 E. Bah

17 E. Fotsing

10 M. Amissi

14 T. Campbell

Coach · Martin Nash

Substitutes

33 · H. Regitnig

2 · P. Gee

16 · B. Lee

6 · D. Pecile

15 · A. Ouattara

9 · L. Mousset

11 · A. Traore

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Supra du Quebec

Formation not confirmed

32 J. Milli

15 Z. Brault-Guillard

2 C. Auguste

4 M. Chretien

11 D. Abzi

33 A. Sissoko

6 A. Biello

9 L. A. Kwemi

10 S. Rea

8 O. El Kalkouli

99 I. Conde

Coach · –

Substitutes

80 · M. Diop

3 · T. Lebeuf

49 · E. Awonongbadje

24 · S. Mlah

77 · R. Bey

92 · N. Santos

12 · C. Bayiha

Vancouver FC

4-2-3-1

1 C. Irving

3 M. Doner

5 M. Campagna

30 T. Field

23 K. Proctor

4 I. Ssewankambo

8 L. Toomey

7 E. Bah

17 E. Fotsing

10 M. Amissi

14 T. Campbell

Coach · Martin Nash

Substitutes

33 · H. Regitnig

2 · P. Gee

16 · B. Lee

6 · D. Pecile

15 · A. Ouattara

9 · L. Mousset

11 · A. Traore

Our number · supra du quebec winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

45% The market46%

Us45%

~~Market~~46%

We make Supra du Quebec a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · supra du quebec win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Supra du Quebec win	45%	46%	−1
Draw	24%	26%	−1
Vancouver FC win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
Supra du Quebec or draw	69%	71%	−2
Supra du Quebec clean sheet	26%	–	–
Vancouver FC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 6.3 4.5 2.0 1 7.8 11.0 7.3 3.3 2 6.7 9.0 6.1 2.8 3 3.8 5.1 3.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Supra du Quebec down, Vancouver FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 683 Canadian Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Supra du Quebec at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vancouver FC away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Supra du Quebec, 1.36 for Vancouver FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VAN 3–2 SUP · SUP 1–5 VAN · VAN 1–1 SUP

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League

SUPRA DU QUEBEC

LLWLWW2–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–6 · 5–0 · 2–1

VANCOUVER FC

LWLDDD0–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	+32	53
2	Forge	25	+21	51
3	Atlético Ottawa	25	−3	40
4	Vancouver FC	25	+2	33
5	Supra du Quebec	25	−7	31
6	HFX Wanderers FC	25	−4	27
7	York United	25	−16	27
8	Pacific FC	25	−25	14