Pacific FC v Forge prediction · Canadian Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pacific FCDrawForge

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Forge 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Forge are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pacific FC 19%, draw 22%, Forge 59%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Pacific FC v ForgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pacific FC win19%

Draw22%

Forge win59%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueWesthills Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pacific FC

Forge

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Canadian Premier League

Last match: 22 Oct · Canadian Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Forge	27	+27	57
8	Pacific FC	27	−29	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · forge winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Forge a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pacific FC v Forge~~0.97 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 57~~8 v 2

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pacific FC win	19%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Forge win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Pacific FC or draw	41%	–	–
Pacific FC clean sheet	16%	–	–
Forge clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.1 10.6 10.1 6.5 3.2 1 5.4 10.6 9.6 6.1 3.0 2 2.8 5.0 4.6 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pacific FC down, Forge across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 691 Canadian Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pacific FC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Forge away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Pacific FC, 1.90 for Forge. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 3–0 PAC · FOR 2–0 PAC · PAC 0–1 FOR · FOR 4–0 PAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 19 Sept

PACIFIC FC

DWLLLL1–1 · 4–3 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–4

FORGE

DDDWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	27	+34	57
2	Forge	27	+27	57
3	Atlético Ottawa	27	−2	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	+3	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	−4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	−5	28
7	York United	27	−24	27
8	Pacific FC	27	−29	14