Pacific FC v Atlético Ottawa prediction · Canadian Premier League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:30

Pacific FC 0–2 Atlético Ottawa ATLÉTICO OTTAWA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Ottawa win~~48%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.400

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Ottawa win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Ottawa 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 28–23–49
2′Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau scores for Atlético Ottawa on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–72
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
16′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Joaquim Coulanges · Atlético Ottawa
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
21′Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau scores for Atlético Ottawa on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–17–73
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
24′We said Atlético Ottawa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 10–18–73
27′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Aidan Daniels · Pacific FC
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Tim Arnaud · Atlético Ottawa
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Atlético Ottawa win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
45′SECOND HALF Pacific FC 0–1 Atlético Ottawa
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atlético Ottawa · On: G. Antinoro · Off: Kamron Habibullah Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atlético Ottawa · On: Jean-Aniel Assi · Off: Tim Arnaud Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Pacific FC · On: Marco Bustos · Off: Aidan Daniels Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Pacific FC · On: Christian Greco-Taylor · Off: Juan David Quintana Echeverry Corrected
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Pacific FC 0–2 Atlético Ottawa · Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Pacific FC 0–2 Atlético Ottawa · Ballou Tabla
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Pacific FC · On: Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt · Off: Roshawn Kadeem Delahaye Juhmi Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Pacific FC · On: Marley Edwards · Off: J. Belluz Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Pacific FC · On: Alejandro Diaz · Off: R. Kratt Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atlético Ottawa · On: Juan Castro · Off: Emiliano·García Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atlético Ottawa · On: Ralph Khoury · Off: Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Diego Gutiérrez · Atlético Ottawa
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Emiliano·García · Atlético Ottawa
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atlético Ottawa · On: Juan Castro · Off: Emiliano·García Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atlético Ottawa · On: Ralph Khoury · Off: Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Atlético Ottawa · On: Tyr Walker · Off: Ballou Tabla Corrected
FTFULL TIME Pacific FC 0–2 Atlético Ottawa
FTPacific FC 0–2 Atlético Ottawa · Atlético Ottawa win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pacific FC win28%

Draw23%

Atlético Ottawa win48%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:00

VenueWesthills Stadium

Line-ups

Pacific FC

4-2-3-1

Atlético Ottawa

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pacific FC

Atlético Ottawa

4Days since last match11

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Atlético Ottawa	25	−3	40
8	Pacific FC	25	−25	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Pacific FC

4-2-3-1

1 E. Himaras

2 T. Marshall

12 J. Belluz

4 D. Konincks

5 J. Quintana

16 T. Gomulka

66 R. Juhmi

37 M. Vales

8 A. Daniels

11 J. Heard

27 R. Kratt

Coach · Terry Dunfield

Substitutes

55 · S. Melvin

15 · C. Greco-Taylor

6 · L. Browning Lagerfeldt

44 · M. Edwards

10 · M. Bustos

99 · S. Hundal

9 · A. Diaz

Atlético Ottawa

4-2-3-1

31 C. Kalongo

37 T. Arnaud

3 J. Dunn

84 S. Kozlovskiy

20 J. Coulanges

10 M. Aparicio

6 D. Gutierrez

7 E. Garcia

13 B. Tabla

30 K. Habibullah

21 N. Fleuriau Chateau

Coach · Diego Campos

Substitutes

1 · T. Crampton

4 · T. Walker

2 · J. Castro

8 · J. Villal

11 · G. Antinoro

14 · J. Assi

19 · R. Khoury

Our number · atlético ottawa winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

48% The market48%

Us48%

~~Market~~48%

We make Atlético Ottawa a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlético ottawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pacific FC win	28%	29%	−1
Draw	23%	23%	+1
Atlético Ottawa win	48%	48%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	70%	−11
Both teams to score	60%	70%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	81%	87%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	51%	−14
Pacific FC or draw	52%	52%	−1
Pacific FC clean sheet	17%	–	–
Atlético Ottawa clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 7.9 7.2 4.3 1 5.8 10.7 9.2 5.5 2.5 2 4.0 6.8 6.0 3.6 3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pacific FC down, Atlético Ottawa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 684 Canadian Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

24 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 8 of 24 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pacific FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Ottawa away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Pacific FC, 1.79 for Atlético Ottawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 23:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

24 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 24

~~Both scored~~12 of 24

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–0 PAC · ATL 3–2 PAC · PAC 2–2 ATL · ATL 2–0 PAC

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League

PACIFIC FC

DLDWLL3–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–5 · 0–3

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA

WDLLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	+32	53
2	Forge	25	+21	51
3	Atlético Ottawa	25	−3	40
4	Vancouver FC	26	+2	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	−7	32
6	HFX Wanderers FC	25	−4	27
7	York United	25	−16	27
8	Pacific FC	25	−25	14