HFX Wanderers FC v Supra du Quebec prediction · Canadian Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HFX Wanderers FCDrawSupra du Quebec

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · HFX Wanderers FC 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HFX Wanderers FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HFX Wanderers FC 49%, draw 23%, Supra du Quebec 27%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on HFX Wanderers FC v Supra du QuebecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

HFX Wanderers FC win49%

Draw23%

Supra du Quebec win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueWanderers Grounds

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HFX Wanderers FC

Supra du Quebec

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Canadian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Supra du Quebec	27	−4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	−5	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hfx wanderers fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make HFX Wanderers FC a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HFX Wanderers FC v Supra du Quebec~~1.81 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 35~~6 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HFX Wanderers FC win	49%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Supra du Quebec win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
HFX Wanderers FC or draw	73%	–	–
HFX Wanderers FC clean sheet	28%	–	–
Supra du Quebec clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.8 5.6 3.8 1 7.9 10.6 6.8 3.0 2 7.3 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.4 5.6 3.7 4 2.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HFX Wanderers FC down, Supra du Quebec across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 691 Canadian Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Supra du Quebec away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for HFX Wanderers FC, 1.30 for Supra du Quebec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SUP 0–2 HFX · HFX 2–3 SUP · SUP 2–1 HFX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 12 Sept

HFX WANDERERS FC

WWLDDL2–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–2

SUPRA DU QUEBEC

WLWWDW2–0 · 0–6 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	27	+34	57
2	Forge	27	+27	57
3	Atlético Ottawa	27	−2	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	+3	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	−4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	−5	28
7	York United	27	−24	27
8	Pacific FC	27	−29	14