HFX Wanderers FC v Cavalry FC prediction · Canadian Premier League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 00:00

HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC CAVALRY FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cavalry FC win~~47%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.878

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cavalry FC win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cavalry FC 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
1′KICK-OFF HFX Wanderers FC v Cavalry FC
5′HFX Wanderers FC find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–23–23
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' HFX Wanderers FC 0–0 Cavalry FC
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' HFX Wanderers FC 1–0 Cavalry FC
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Cavalry FC win: 47% at kick-off, 23% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' HFX Wanderers FC win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Cavalry FC win 23%)
7′We said Cavalry FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 54–23–23
22′We said Cavalry FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–24–19
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Daan Klomp · Cavalry FC
33′🟨 YELLOW · 34' E. Kobza · Cavalry FC
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' HFX Wanderers FC 1–0 Cavalry FC · Caniggia Elva
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' HFX Wanderers FC 1–1 Cavalry FC · Jason Bahamboula
45′SECOND HALF HFX Wanderers FC 1–1 Cavalry FC
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' HFX Wanderers FC 1–2 Cavalry FC · Caniggia Elva
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' HFX Wanderers FC 1–2 Cavalry FC · Ali Musse
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' HFX Wanderers FC · On: S. Zitman · Off: Lucas Olguin
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Nelson Pierre · Off: Liam MacKenzie
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' S. Zitman · HFX Wanderers FC
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' B. Kamdem · Cavalry FC
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Yohan Bai · Off: I. Johnston
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Yohan Bai · Off: I. Johnston
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Cavalry FC
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Yohan Bai · Off: I. Johnston
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cavalry FC · On: Goteh Ntignee · Off: Ali Musse
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cavalry FC · On: Maël Henry · Off: Caniggia Elva
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Cavalry FC · On: Curtis Ofori · Off: Nathaniel Edwards
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC · Ali Musse
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC · Ryan Telfer
FTFULL TIME HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC
FTHFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC · Cavalry FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 20:45 · locked at kick-off

HFX Wanderers FC win28%

Draw25%

Cavalry FC win47%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 21:00

VenueWanderers Grounds

Line-ups

HFX Wanderers FC

4-2-3-1

Cavalry FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

HFX Wanderers FC

Cavalry FC

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	+32	53
6	HFX Wanderers FC	25	−4	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

HFX Wanderers FC

4-2-3-1

1 M. Carducci

21 J. Alphonse

26 T. Meilleur-Gigeuere

16 K. Sow

7 R. Telfer

6 L. Callegari

5 L. Olguin

23 M. Arilla

8 I. Johnston

25 L. MacKenzie

14 J. Bahamboula

Coach · Vanni Sartini

Substitutes

12 · S. Astridge

22 · S. Zitman

18 · A. Rampersad

11 · A. Reid

10 · Y. Bai

27 · N. Pierre

20 · T. Ciccarelli

Cavalry FC

4-2-3-1

29 N. Ingham

16 A. Pearlman

4 D. Klomp

55 A. Didic

5 Fewo

8 H. Paton

24 E. Kobza

7 A. Musse

9 T. Warschewski

17 N. Edwards

14 C. Elva

Coach · Tommy Wheeldon

Substitutes

41 · C. De Sousa

3 · C. Ofori

19 · O. Antoniuk

28 · N. Myroniuk

35 · O. Graham-Roache

20 · G. Ntignee

18 · M. Henry

Our number · cavalry fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 20:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market50%

Us47%

~~Market~~50%

We make Cavalry FC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cavalry fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HFX Wanderers FC win	28%	25%	+3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Cavalry FC win	47%	50%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
HFX Wanderers FC or draw	53%	50%	+3
HFX Wanderers FC clean sheet	20%	–	–
Cavalry FC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.4 9.4 7.8 4.2 1 6.9 11.7 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 4.3 6.9 5.5 3.0 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HFX Wanderers FC down, Cavalry FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 685 Canadian Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

22 previous meetings, 2.32 goals a meeting; 11 of 22 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cavalry FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for HFX Wanderers FC, 1.63 for Cavalry FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.32

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 22

~~Both scored~~12 of 22

~~Last meetings~~HFX 1–3 CAV · CAV 1–1 HFX · CAV 2–0 HFX · CAV 3–1 HFX

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League

HFX WANDERERS FC

LLWWLD3–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–3

CAVALRY FC

WWDWLL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	+32	53
2	Forge	25	+21	51
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	−1	43
4	Vancouver FC	26	+2	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	−7	32
6	HFX Wanderers FC	25	−4	27
7	York United	25	−16	27
8	Pacific FC	26	−27	14