Forge v York United prediction · Canadian Premier League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Forge 5–0 York United FORGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forge win~~64%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.191

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forge win at 64%.
2′Much as we predicted: Forge was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
6′4′ and it is 1–0: Noah Jensen on the scoresheet for Forge. 1–0 · 84–11–5
8′We published Forge at 64%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
11′Forge ahead on 9′ through Nana Ampomah. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
13′We published Forge at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
13′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Forge · On: Ben Paton · Off: Nana Ampomah
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
16′Forge ahead on 9′ through Nana Ampomah. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Forge 3–0 York United · Nana Ampomah
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Forge 3–0 York United · Antoine Batisse
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Forge win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Forge 3–0 York United
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' York United · On: Sebastian Gonzales · Off: Oswaldo Leon
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' York United · On: Carlos Guzman · Off: Juan Córdova
46′SECOND HALF Forge 3–0 York United
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Forge 4–0 York United · Antoine Batisse
48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Forge 4–0 York United · Antoine Batisse
50′⚽ GOAL · 46' Forge 4–0 York United · Marko Jevremović
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Forge · On: Ismael Oketokoun Hassane · Off: Lucas Cavallini
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Forge · On: Levonte Johnson · Off: Rezart Rama
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Forge · On: aghilas sadek · Off: Antoine Batisse
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' York United · On: Shola Jimoh · Off: Kembo·Kibato
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Forge 5–0 York United · Marko Jevremović
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Anthony Aromatario · Forge
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Forge · On: Tristan Borges · Off: Anthony Aromatario
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' York United · On: Luca accettola · Off: Beni Badibanga
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Forge 5–0 York United · Marko Jevremović
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Forge 5–0 York United · Ben Paton
FTFULL TIME Forge 5–0 York United
FTForge 5–0 York United · Forge win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Forge win64%

Draw20%

York United win16%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueTim Hortons Field

Line-ups

Forge

4-2-3-1

York United

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Forge

York United

5Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Forge	25	+21	51
7	York United	25	−16	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Forge

4-2-3-1

36 D. Bontis

24 R. Rama

5 D. Nimick

55 M. James

3 M. Jevremovic

8 A. Batisse

23 A. Aromatario

87 M. Bourgeois

22 N. Jensen

11 N. Ampomah

90 L. Cavallini

Coach · Peter Reynders

Substitutes

33 · C. Grant

4 · D. Krutzen

26 · A. Sadek

6 · B. Paton

19 · T. Borges

14 · L. Johnson

7 · I. Oketokoun

York United

3-4-3

17 A. Campos

6 R. Lopez

3 L. Singh

4 O. Leon

16 M. Ferrari

23 J. Cordova

10 O. Bassett

21 K. Kibato

7 S. Yeates

39 B. Badibanga

11 A. Almagro

Coach · Mauro Eustaquio

Substitutes

12 · I. Pavela

8 · C. Guzman

13 · L. Accettola

36 · K. Clarke

9 · S. Gonzales

19 · S. Jimoh

35 · C. Onyeocha

Our number · forge winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

64% The market67%

Us64%

~~Market~~67%

We make Forge a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · forge win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forge win	64%	67%	−3
Draw	20%	19%	+1
York United win	16%	14%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	46%	−8
Forge or draw	84%	86%	−2
Forge clean sheet	39%	–	–
York United clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 4.1 2.1 1 9.6 9.4 4.3 2 10.4 9.7 4.6 3 7.4 6.9 3.3 4 4.0 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forge down, York United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 685 Canadian Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

26 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 16 of 26 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forge at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). York United away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Forge, 0.95 for York United. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

26 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~16 of 26

~~Both scored~~13 of 26

~~Last meetings~~FOR 1–1 YOR · YOR 1–3 FOR · YOR 1–4 FOR · FOR 3–0 YOR

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League

FORGE

DWDDDW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 3–0

YORK UNITED

WLDLWL3–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	+32	53
2	Forge	25	+21	51
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	−1	43
4	Vancouver FC	26	+2	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	−7	32
6	HFX Wanderers FC	25	−4	27
7	York United	25	−16	27
8	Pacific FC	26	−27	14