Cavalry FC v Vancouver FC prediction · Canadian Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cavalry FCDrawVancouver FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cavalry FC 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cavalry FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cavalry FC 65%, draw 20%, Vancouver FC 15%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Cavalry FC v Vancouver FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cavalry FC win65%

Draw20%

Vancouver FC win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueATCO Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cavalry FC

Vancouver FC

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Canadian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cavalry fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Cavalry FC a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cavalry FC v Vancouver FC~~2.18 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 57 v 37~~1 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cavalry FC win	65%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Vancouver FC win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Cavalry FC or draw	85%	–	–
Cavalry FC clean sheet	40%	–	–
Vancouver FC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%

0123450 4.9 4.1 1 9.6 9.2 4.2 2 10.5 9.7 4.5 3 7.6 7.0 3.2 4 4.2 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cavalry FC down, Vancouver FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 691 Canadian Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cavalry FC at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vancouver FC away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Cavalry FC, 0.93 for Vancouver FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAV 1–0 VAN · VAN 1–0 CAV · VAN 0–2 CAV · VAN 2–2 CAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

CAVALRY FC

DWLLDW1–1 · 6–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 4–2

VANCOUVER FC

LDDDDW1–3 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	27	+34	57
2	Forge	27	+27	57
3	Atlético Ottawa	27	−2	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	+3	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	−4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	−5	28
7	York United	27	−24	27
8	Pacific FC	27	−29	14