Cavalry FC v Pacific FC prediction · Canadian Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Cavalry FC 4–2 Pacific FC CAVALRY FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cavalry FC win~~74%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.104

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cavalry FC win at 74%.
33′Cavalry FC ahead on 17′ through Tobias Warschewski. 2–1. 2–1 · 88–9–3
35′We said Cavalry FC at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–1 · 88–9–3
45′We said Cavalry FC at 74%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 2–2 · 58–30–12
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cavalry FC 2–2 Pacific FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Cavalry FC win: 74% at kick-off, 58% now
45′HALF-TIME Cavalry FC 3–2 Pacific FC
45′SECOND HALF Cavalry FC 3–2 Pacific FC
46′44′: Marco Bustos on the scoresheet for Pacific FC. 3–2 · 88–10–2
46′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Adam Pearlman · Cavalry FC
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Cavalry FC 3–2 Pacific FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Cavalry FC win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
47′45′: B. Kamdem on the scoresheet for Cavalry FC, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 88–10–2
48′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 88–10–2
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cavalry FC · On: Nathaniel Edwards · Off: Adam Pearlman
52′We said Cavalry FC at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 4–2 · 98–2–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Cavalry FC 4–2 Pacific FC
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Cavalry FC win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
54′Cavalry FC ahead on 51′ through Ali Musse. 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
54′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Juan David Quintana Echeverry · Pacific FC
55′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 98–2–0
55′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Pacific FC · On: Christian Greco-Taylor · Off: J. Kadin Brian Chung
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Pacific FC · On: Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt · Off: Roshawn Kadeem Delahaye Juhmi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Pacific FC · On: Y. Toualy · Off: Aidan Daniels
67′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Roshawn Kadeem Delahaye Juhmi · Pacific FC
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cavalry FC · On: Maël Henry · Off: Michael Baldisimo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cavalry FC · On: Owen Graham-Roache · Off: Caniggia Elva
77′We said Cavalry FC at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pacific FC · On: Alejandro Diaz · Off: Marco Bustos
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pacific FC · On: Marley Edwards · Off: R. Kratt
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cavalry FC · On: Levi Laing · Off: Ali Musse
86′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Maël Henry · Cavalry FC
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cavalry FC · On: James McGlinchey · Off: Goteh Ntignee
90′4–2 at the end. Our 74% on Cavalry FC comes in. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cavalry FC 4–2 Pacific FC
FTCavalry FC 4–2 Pacific FC · Cavalry FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cavalry FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cavalry FC 74%, draw 16%, Pacific FC 10%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Cavalry FC v Pacific FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cavalry FC win74%

Draw16%

Pacific FC win10%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueATCO Field

Line-ups

Cavalry FC

4-2-3-1

Pacific FC

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cavalry FC

Pacific FC

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Canadian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cavalry FC

4-2-3-1

29 N. Ingham

16 A. Pearlman

4 D. Klomp

55 A. Didic

5 Fewo

28 N. Myroniuk

6 M. Baldisimo

7 A. Musse

9 T. Warschewski

20 G. Ntignee

14 C. Elva

Coach · Tommy Wheeldon

Substitutes

21 · J. Holliday

15 · L. Laing

19 · O. Antoniuk

30 · J. McGlinchey

17 · N. Edwards

35 · O. Graham-Roache

18 · M. Henry

Pacific FC

3-4-3

1 E. Himaras

5 J. Quintana

4 D. Konincks

2 T. Marshall

7 K. Chung

16 T. Gomulka

66 R. Juhmi

37 M. Vales

10 M. Bustos

27 R. Kratt

8 A. Daniels

Coach · Terry Dunfield

Substitutes

55 · S. Melvin

15 · C. Greco-Taylor

12 · J. Belluz

6 · L. Browning Lagerfeldt

44 · M. Edwards

9 · A. Diaz

64 · Y. R. Toualy

Our number · cavalry fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

74% The market77%

Us74%

~~Market~~77%

We make Cavalry FC a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cavalry FC v Pacific FC~~2.54 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 54 v 14~~1 v 8

~~The market · Cavalry FC win~~77% · ours 74%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cavalry FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 73%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cavalry FC win	74%	77%	−3
Draw	16%	15%	+1
Pacific FC win	10%	8%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Cavalry FC or draw	90%	92%	−2
Cavalry FC clean sheet	44%	–	–
Pacific FC clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 3.8 2.8 1 8.7 7.5 3.0 2 11.0 9.0 3.7 3 9.3 7.5 3.1 4 5.9 4.8 5 3.1 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cavalry FC down, Pacific FC across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 688 Canadian Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cavalry FC at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Pacific FC away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.54 goals for Cavalry FC, 0.83 for Pacific FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAC 0–1 CAV · CAV 3–0 PAC · PAC 1–3 CAV · PAC 1–2 CAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

CAVALRY FC

WDWLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–2

PACIFIC FC

LDWLLL0–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	26	+32	54
2	Forge	26	+26	54
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	−1	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	+3	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	−4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	−5	28
7	York United	27	−24	27
8	Pacific FC	26	−27	14