Atlético Ottawa v Forge prediction · Canadian Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34

Atlético Ottawa 1–2 Forge FORGE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forge win~~40%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.544

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.228

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forge win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Forge was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Ottawa v Forge
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Levonte Johnson · Forge
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Diego Gutiérrez · Atlético Ottawa
33′We published Forge at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–20–70
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Atlético Ottawa 0–1 Forge
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Forge win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
34′Forge ahead on 33′ through Anthony Aromatario. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–70
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–70
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Emiliano·García · Atlético Ottawa
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Ottawa 0–1 Forge
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Ottawa 0–1 Forge
53′We published Forge at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
53′We published Forge at 40%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Atlético Ottawa 0–2 Forge
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Forge win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
54′We published Forge at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
54′Levonte Johnson scores for Forge on 54′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Antoine Batisse · Forge
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Atlético Ottawa
63′A red card for Atlético Ottawa on 61′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–3–96
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Atlético Ottawa · On: G. Antinoro · Off: Manny Aparicio Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Atlético Ottawa · On: G. Antinoro · Off: Kamron Habibullah
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Ottawa · On: Jean-Aniel Assi · Off: Tim Arnaud
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atlético Ottawa · On: Reinaldo Abraham · Off: Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Forge · On: Ismael Oketokoun Hassane · Off: Lucas Cavallini
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atlético Ottawa · On: Ralph Khoury · Off: Emiliano·García
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Forge · On: Hoce Massunda · Off: M. Bourgeois
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Forge · On: Ben Paton · Off: Levonte Johnson
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Forge · On: Tristan Borges · Off: Noah Jensen
82′We published Forge at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Forge win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Forge · On: aghilas sadek · Off: Anthony Aromatario
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atlético Ottawa · On: Juan Castro · Off: Ballou Tabla
97′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Atlético Ottawa 1–2 Forge
98′90′: G. Antinoro on the scoresheet for Atlético Ottawa, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Atlético Ottawa 1–2 Forge
FTAtlético Ottawa 1–2 Forge · Forge win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Forge are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Ottawa 33%, draw 27%, Forge 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Ottawa v ForgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Ottawa win33%

Draw27%

Forge win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueTD Place Stadium

Line-ups

Atlético Ottawa

4-4-2

Forge

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Ottawa

Forge

6Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · Canadian Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Forge	26	+26	54
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	−1	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlético Ottawa

4-4-2

1 T. Crampton

37 T. Arnaud

3 J. Dunn

84 S. Kozlovskiy

20 J. Coulanges

7 E. Garcia

6 D. Gutierrez

10 M. Aparicio

30 K. Habibullah

13 B. Tabla

21 N. Fleuriau Chateau

Coach · Diego Campos

Substitutes

31 · C. Kalongo

4 · T. Walker

2 · J. Castro

11 · G. Antinoro

14 · J. Assi

19 · R. Khoury

77 · R. Abraham

Forge

4-2-3-1

36 D. Bontis

24 R. Rama

5 D. Nimick

55 M. James

4 D. Krutzen

8 A. Batisse

23 A. Aromatario

87 M. Bourgeois

22 N. Jensen

14 L. Johnson

90 L. Cavallini

Coach · Peter Reynders

Substitutes

33 · C. Grant

3 · M. Jevremovic

26 · A. Sadek

6 · B. Paton

19 · T. Borges

17 · H. Massunda

7 · I. Oketokoun

Our number · forge winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market61%

Us40%

~~Market~~61%

We make Forge a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 21 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Ottawa v Forge~~1.21 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 43 v 54~~3 v 2

~~The market · Forge win~~61% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Forge win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Ottawa win	33%	17%	+16
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Forge win	40%	61%	−21
Over 2.5 goals	47%	61%	−14
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	81%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	26%	40%	−14
Atlético Ottawa or draw	60%	39%	+21
Atlético Ottawa clean sheet	26%	–	–
Forge clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.2 10.2 7.1 3.2 1 9.1 12.8 8.4 3.8 2 5.7 7.5 5.0 2.3 3 2.3 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Ottawa down, Forge across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 688 Canadian Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Forge away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Atlético Ottawa, 1.35 for Forge. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 3–0 ATL · ATL 2–1 FOR · FOR 2–0 ATL · FOR 1–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA

DLLWWW0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–0

FORGE

WDDDWW3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	26	+32	54
2	Forge	26	+26	54
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	−1	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	+3	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	−4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	−5	28
7	York United	27	−24	27
8	Pacific FC	26	−27	14