Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Canadian Championship › CF Montreal v Forge

Back
Canada flag

CF Montreal v Forge

CF Montreal
1–1After penalties
Forge

Canadian Championship · THU 22 OCT · Saputo Stadium

After 90 minutesGraded 22 Oct 03:00
CF Montreal 1–1 Forge CF MONTREAL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said CF Montreal win44%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.787
The market’s Brier score0.872

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. Forge won 2–4 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CF Montreal win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: CF Montreal was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF CF Montreal v Forge
  4. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' CF Montreal
  5. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Forge
  6. 25′PENALTY MISSED · 25' CF Montreal
  7. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Forge
  8. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' CF Montreal
  9. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was CF Montreal win 37%)
  10. 44′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Forge · On: I. Oketokoun · Off: L. Cavallini
  11. 45′We said CF Montreal at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–24–66
  12. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CF Montreal win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME CF Montreal 0–1 Forge
  14. 46′SECOND HALF CF Montreal 0–1 Forge
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Forge · On: B. Paton · Off: A. Sadek
  16. 49′CF Montreal find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–45–23
  17. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' CF Montreal 1–1 Forge
  18. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' CF Montreal win: 44% at kick-off, 33% now
  19. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Forge win 66%)
  20. 50′We said CF Montreal at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  21. 51′Forge score on 45′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–24–68 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  22. 51′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' CF Montreal 0–1 Forge
  23. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' CF Montreal win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
  24. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Forge win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 45%)
  25. 52′We said CF Montreal at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–24–68 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  26. 53′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 8–23–69 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  27. 54′A red card for CF Montreal on 54′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 31–48–21
  28. 54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' CF Montreal
  29. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' CF Montreal
  30. 55′CF Montreal are down to nine from 54′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 30–49–21
  31. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' B. Vera · CF Montreal
  32. 56′🟥 RED CARD · 56' CF Montreal
  33. 57′We said CF Montreal at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
  34. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' CF Montreal · On: E. Morales · Off: F. Herbers
  35. 66′We said CF Montreal at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
  36. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' CF Montreal win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
  37. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Forge · On: T. Borges · Off: N. Jensen
  38. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Forge · On: L. Johnson · Off: A. Aromatario
  39. 73′We said CF Montreal at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  40. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' CF Montreal win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  41. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Forge
  42. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CF Montreal · On: G. Synchuk · Off: D. Rios
  43. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CF Montreal · On: N. Streit · Off: W. Carmona
  44. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Forge · On: H. Massunda · Off: M. Bourgeois
  45. 90′We said CF Montreal at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  46. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 53%. 1–1 · 28–53–20
  47. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' CF Montreal win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  48. 94′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 56%. 1–1 · 25–56–18
  49. 109′SUBSTITUTION · 105' Forge · On: D. Krutzen · Off: M. Jevremovic
  50. 111′🟨 YELLOW · 111' CF Montreal
  51. 111′🟨 YELLOW · 100' G. Synchuk · CF Montreal
  52. 117′SUBSTITUTION · 111' CF Montreal · On: D. Pereira · Off: B. Craig
  53. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  54. FTFULL TIME CF Montreal 1–1 Forge
  55. FTCF Montreal 1–1 Forge after 90 minutes, as graded · CF Montreal win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CF Montreal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CF Montreal 44%, draw 28%, Forge 28%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on CF Montreal v ForgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

CF Montreal win44%
Draw28%
Forge win28%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 00:00

RoundFinal

VenueSaputo Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CF Montreal

Forge

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 17 Oct · Canadian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cf montreal winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
44% The market52%
Us44%
Market52%

We make CF Montreal a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CF Montreal v Forge1.36 – 1.02
Form · Canadian Championship this season · since 6 MayW4 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L0
The market · CF Montreal win52% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 16 OCT 00:0021 OCT 23:45
Our probability · CF Montreal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CF Montreal win44%52%−8
Draw28%26%+2
Forge win28%22%+6
Over 2.5 goals42%52%−10
Both teams to score48%54%−6
Over 1.5 goals69%75%−6
Over 3.5 goals22%31%−9
CF Montreal or draw72%78%−6
CF Montreal clean sheet36%––
Forge clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 9.7 9.1 4.8 1 12.2 13.3 6.5 2.2 2 8.6 8.7 4.4 3 3.9 3.9 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CF Montreal down, Forge across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.14
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsCFM 2–2 FOR · FOR 1–0 CFM · CFM 1–2 FOR · FOR 1–1 CFM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Canadian Championship this season · since 6 May

CF MONTREAL

WWWDW5–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

FORGE

WDWDW4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0