Tonnerre v Sable prediction · Elite Two

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:34

Tonnerre 2–0 Sable TONNERRE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tonnerre win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tonnerre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tonnerre 39%, draw 27%, Sable 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Tonnerre v SableBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tonnerre win39%

Draw27%

Sable win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tonnerre

Sable

125Days since last match125

Last match: 21 June · Elite Two

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tonnerre winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Tonnerre a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tonnerre v Sable~~1.26 – 1.15

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tonnerre win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sable win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Tonnerre or draw	66%	–	–
Tonnerre clean sheet	32%	–	–
Sable clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.4 10.5 6.0 2.4 1 11.5 12.4 7.2 2.8 2 7.1 7.8 4.5 3 3.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tonnerre down, Sable across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 803 Elite Two matches up to 21 Jun 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elite Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tonnerre at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sable away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Tonnerre, 1.15 for Sable. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAB 2–2 TON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Elite Two this season

TONNERRE

No matches in our record yet.

SABLE

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonnerre	0	0	0
2	Sable	0	0	0
3	Les Astres	0	0	0
4	Kumba	0	0	0
5	Elecsport	0	0	0
6	Mintack	0	0	0
7	Jeunes Fauves	0	0	0
8	Bamboutos	0	0	0
9	Avion Academy	0	0	0
10	Atlantic	0	0	0
11	FAP	0	0	0
12	Fortuna Mfou	0	0	0