Victoria United v Aigle Royal de Moungo prediction · Elite One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Victoria United 2–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo VICTORIA UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Victoria United win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Victoria United win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Victoria United was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Victoria United v Aigle Royal de Moungo
5′Aigle Royal de Moungo score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–23–53
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Victoria United 0–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Victoria United win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Aigle Royal de Moungo win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Victoria United win 24%)
6′We said Victoria United at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
24′We said Victoria United at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Victoria United win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–58
41′We said Victoria United at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′Victoria United find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–37–25
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Victoria United 1–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Victoria United win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Victoria United 1–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo
46′SECOND HALF Victoria United 1–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo
49′We said Victoria United at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–39–24
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Aigle Royal de Moungo win 24%)
54′We said Victoria United at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
63′We said Victoria United at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–20
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Victoria United win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
70′A goal for Victoria United on 70′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
70′We published Victoria United at 48%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Victoria United 2–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Victoria United win: 48% at kick-off, 83% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Victoria United win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
74′We published Victoria United at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Victoria United win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
81′We published Victoria United at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
87′We published Victoria United at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Victoria United win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Victoria United 2–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo
FTVictoria United 2–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo · Victoria United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Victoria United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Victoria United 48%, draw 24%, Aigle Royal de Moungo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Victoria United v Aigle Royal de MoungoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Victoria United win48%

Draw24%

Aigle Royal de Moungo win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Victoria United

Aigle Royal de Moungo

112Days since last match112

Last match: 28 June · Elite One

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Victoria United	0	0	0
14	Aigle Royal de Moungo	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · victoria united winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Victoria United a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Victoria United v Aigle Royal de Moungo~~1.67 – 1.23

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~12 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Victoria United win	48%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Aigle Royal de Moungo win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Victoria United or draw	72%	–	–
Victoria United clean sheet	30%	–	–
Aigle Royal de Moungo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.8 7.0 4.2 1 9.5 11.0 6.7 2.8 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.3 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Victoria United down, Aigle Royal de Moungo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,391 Elite One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elite One matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Victoria United at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aigle Royal de Moungo away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Victoria United, 1.23 for Aigle Royal de Moungo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VIC 1–2 AIG · AIG 0–1 VIC · AIG 1–1 VIC · VIC 1–0 AIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Elite One this season

VICTORIA UNITED

No matches in our record yet.

AIGLE ROYAL DE MOUNGO

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	PTS
1	Stade Renard	1	1
2	Union Abong-Mbang	1	1
3	Canon	0	0
4	Cotonsport	0	0
5	Panthère	0	0
6	Dynamo de Douala	0	0
7	Unisport Bafang	0	0
8	PWD Bamenda	0	0
9	Aigle Royal	0	0
10	APEJES Academy	0	0
11	Colombe	0	0
12	Victoria United	0	0
13	Gazelle	0	0
14	Aigle Royal de Moungo	0	0