Svay Rieng v Boeung Ket prediction · C-League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Svay Rieng 4–1 Boeung Ket SVAY RIENG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Svay Rieng win~~54%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.123

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Svay Rieng win at 54%.
1′Svay Rieng score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–10
1′We said Svay Rieng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–14–10
1′KICK-OFF Svay Rieng v Boeung Ket
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Boeung Ket
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–8
34′Svay Rieng find the net on 34′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Svay Rieng 2–0 Boeung Ket
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Svay Rieng win: 54% at kick-off, 92% now
35′We said Svay Rieng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Svay Rieng
43′A goal for Svay Rieng on 42′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′We said Svay Rieng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Svay Rieng 3–0 Boeung Ket
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Svay Rieng win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
44′Boeung Ket score on 44′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
44′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Svay Rieng 3–1 Boeung Ket
45′HALF-TIME Svay Rieng 3–1 Boeung Ket
46′SECOND HALF Svay Rieng 3–1 Boeung Ket
53′Svay Rieng find the net on 53′. 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
53′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Svay Rieng 4–1 Boeung Ket
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Boeung Ket
62′We said Svay Rieng at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Svay Rieng 4–1 Boeung Ket
FTSvay Rieng 4–1 Boeung Ket · Svay Rieng win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Svay Rieng are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Svay Rieng 54%, draw 21%, Boeung Ket 24%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Svay Rieng v Boeung KetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Svay Rieng win54%

Draw21%

Boeung Ket win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueSvay Rieng Stadium

Line-ups

Svay Rieng

Boeung Ket

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Svay Rieng

Boeung Ket

3Days since last match29

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 19 Sept · C-League

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Svay Rieng	3	+7	7
9	Boeung Ket	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Svay Rieng

Formation not confirmed

27 D. Vireak

5 V. Soeuy

3 T. Ose

4 F. Hammouti

9 C. Sieng

10 S. Nhean

16 S. Kim

21 Martins Junior

46 K. Peprah

61 T. Odawara

97 C. Shields

Coach · Matthew McConkey

Substitutes

1 · H. Sang

7 · Tiago Alves

11 · R. Min

14 · D. Sovan

18 · S. Aim

19 · B. Seut

22 · C. Chantha

24 · R. Ky

25 · S. Chou

35 · D. Sophal

Boeung Ket

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Koy

31 S. Kelly

2 S. Sleh

5 V. Chhoeung

7 I. Fernandes

13 L. Zabala

14 P. Our

18 Serginho

20 D. Vang

24 C. Dehmie

99 M. Bevan

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · S. Woods

6 · N. Soeuth

8 · V. Chea

17 · S. Eav

21 · A. Mohamath

22 · C. Chheng

23 · T. Bunchhai

27 · A. Lim Raymond

77 · M. Yeu

47 · T. Sinarin

Our number · svay rieng winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market72%

Us54%

~~Market~~72%

We make Svay Rieng a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Svay Rieng v Boeung Ket~~2.06 – 1.30

~~Form · C-League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 1~~3 v 9

~~The market · Svay Rieng win~~72% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Svay Rieng win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Svay Rieng win	54%	72%	−18
Draw	21%	18%	+3
Boeung Ket win	24%	10%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	55%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	48%	−5
Svay Rieng or draw	76%	90%	−14
Svay Rieng clean sheet	28%	–	–
Boeung Ket clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 4.0 4.6 3.0 1 7.2 9.3 5.9 2.6 2 7.4 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 5.0 6.3 4.1 4 2.6 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Svay Rieng down, Boeung Ket across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 690 C-League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Svay Rieng at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Boeung Ket away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Svay Rieng, 1.30 for Boeung Ket. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SVA 1–1 BOE · SVA 2–3 BOE · BOE 1–1 SVA · BOE 0–0 SVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 6 Sept

SVAY RIENG

WWD3–0 · 4–0 · 1–1

BOEUNG KET

DL3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	4	+9	12
2	NagaWorld	4	+3	10
3	Svay Rieng	3	+7	7
4	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
5	Kompong Dewa	4	−1	4
6	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	4	−9	3
7	Phnom Penh Crown	2	0	2
8	Angkor Tiger	3	−1	2
9	Boeung Ket	2	−1	1
10	Life Sihanoukville	2	−3	0
11	National Defense	3	−10	0