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Phnom Penh Crown v Life Sihanoukville

Phnom Penh Crown

1–1Full time

Life Sihanoukville

C-League · MON 19 OCT · RSN Stadium

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:01

Phnom Penh Crown 1–1 Life Sihanoukville PHNOM PENH CROWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Phnom Penh Crown win~~77%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Phnom Penh Crown win at 77%.
1′Much as we predicted: Phnom Penh Crown was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 77–15–9
1′KICK-OFF Phnom Penh Crown v Life Sihanoukville
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Life Sihanoukville
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Phnom Penh Crown
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 67% now
36′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 65%. 0–0 · 65–24–10
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Phnom Penh Crown
38′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–25–11
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Life Sihanoukville
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 62% now
45′HALF-TIME Phnom Penh Crown 0–0 Life Sihanoukville
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 61% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Phnom Penh Crown win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Draw 52%)
45′SECOND HALF Phnom Penh Crown 0–0 Life Sihanoukville
49′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–31–11
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 57% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 57% now
55′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–35–11
57′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 53–37–11
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 47% now
66′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–46–10
68′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 42–49–9
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Phnom Penh Crown win 46%)
69′🟥 RED CARD · 69' Phnom Penh Crown
70′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–52–9
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 37% now
74′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–58–8
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Phnom Penh Crown
77′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–64–7
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 27% now
79′Life Sihanoukville find the net on 78′. 0–0 · 26–68–7
80′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–70–6
81′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–19–78
81′⚽ GOAL · 78' Phnom Penh Crown 0–1 Life Sihanoukville
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Phnom Penh Crown win: 77% at kick-off, 3% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Life Sihanoukville win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 72%)
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Life Sihanoukville
87′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Life Sihanoukville
87′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Life Sihanoukville
88′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Life Sihanoukville
89′A red card for Phnom Penh Crown on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 1–9–90
89′🟨 YELLOW · 45+7' Phnom Penh Crown
90′Red cards for both sides: Phnom Penh Crown down to ten, Life Sihanoukville to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 0–8–92
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Life Sihanoukville
90′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Life Sihanoukville
100′Phnom Penh Crown find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 3–96–1
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+10' Phnom Penh Crown 1–1 Life Sihanoukville
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Life Sihanoukville win 97%)
101′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' Phnom Penh Crown
FTFULL TIME Phnom Penh Crown 1–1 Life Sihanoukville
FTPhnom Penh Crown 1–1 Life Sihanoukville · Phnom Penh Crown win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phnom Penh Crown are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Phnom Penh Crown 77%, draw 15%, Life Sihanoukville 9%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Phnom Penh Crown v Life SihanoukvilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Phnom Penh Crown win77%

Draw15%

Life Sihanoukville win9%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueRSN Stadium

Line-ups

Phnom Penh Crown

Life Sihanoukville

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Phnom Penh Crown

Life Sihanoukville

4Days since last match29

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 20 Sept · C-League

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Phnom Penh Crown	2	0	2
10	Life Sihanoukville	2	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Phnom Penh Crown

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Chiem

4 R. Ketting

5 R. Feher

15 C. Choun

16 P. Long

45 C. Timmins

8 C. Orn

23 S. Bong

7 G. Mijland

9 T. Sa

28 D. Bares

Coach · Oleh Starynskyi

Substitutes

21 · R. Tin

6 · V. Chhin

19 · B. Sorm

31 · H. Chan

20 · P. Koeut

32 · R. Eam

44 · P. Pov

29 · U. Sa

11 · D. Yem

10 · M. Dyer

Life Sihanoukville

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Manoel

7 A. Ferreira

2 S. E. Ouk

4 Cleberson

9 L. K. Khem

10 T. Kimheng

11 L. Serra

36 C. Vi

40 T. Phem

47 D. Malis

99 Bruno Ernandes

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · M. Choung

8 · N. Krusevac

17 · P. Kea

12 · S. Kour

22 · C. Ron

27 · V. Hak

30 · C. Meta

34 · M. Soktikun

77 · N. Nat

88 · S. Le

Our number · phnom penh crown winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

77% The market82%

Us77%

~~Market~~82%

We make Phnom Penh Crown a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Phnom Penh Crown v Life Sihanoukville~~2.68 – 0.77

~~Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 0~~8 v 10

~~The market · Phnom Penh Crown win~~82% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Phnom Penh Crown win The market, margin stripped

Published at 76%, 77% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phnom Penh Crown win	77%	82%	−5
Draw	15%	11%	+4
Life Sihanoukville win	9%	7%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	76%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	89%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	58%	−13
Phnom Penh Crown or draw	91%	93%	−2
Phnom Penh Crown clean sheet	47%	–	–
Life Sihanoukville clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 3.7 2.5 1 8.7 6.7 2.6 2 11.3 8.4 3.3 3 9.9 7.4 2.9 4 6.7 4.9 5 3.7 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Phnom Penh Crown down, Life Sihanoukville across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 692 C-League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 6.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Phnom Penh Crown at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Life Sihanoukville away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.68 goals for Phnom Penh Crown, 0.77 for Life Sihanoukville. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~6.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PHN 3–0 LIF · LIF 3–4 PHN · LIF 0–5 PHN · PHN 10–0 LIF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept

PHNOM PENH CROWN

DD2–2 · 2–2

LIFE SIHANOUKVILLE

LL0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	4	+9	12
2	Svay Rieng	4	+10	10
3	NagaWorld	4	+3	10
4	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
5	Angkor Tiger	4	+5	5
6	Kompong Dewa	4	−1	4
7	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	4	−9	3
8	Phnom Penh Crown	2	0	2
9	Boeung Ket	3	−4	1
10	Life Sihanoukville	2	−3	0
11	National Defense	4	−16	0