Home › Football › C-League › National Defense v Phnom Penh Crown

National Defense v Phnom Penh Crown

National Defense

1–2Full time

Phnom Penh Crown

C-League · SAT 24 OCT · RCAF Old Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

National Defense 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown PHNOM PENH CROWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Phnom Penh Crown win~~81%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.054

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Phnom Penh Crown win at 81%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Phnom Penh Crown 81% before kick-off, 81% now. 0–0 · 8–11–81
1′KICK-OFF National Defense v Phnom Penh Crown
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' National Defense
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Phnom Penh Crown win: 81% at kick-off, 71% now
40′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 10–20–69
45′HALF-TIME National Defense 0–0 Phnom Penh Crown
46′SECOND HALF National Defense 0–0 Phnom Penh Crown
48′Phnom Penh Crown score on 48′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–9–89
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' National Defense 0–1 Phnom Penh Crown
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Phnom Penh Crown win: 81% at kick-off, 89% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' National Defense
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Phnom Penh Crown
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Phnom Penh Crown win: 81% at kick-off, 91% now
76′National Defense find the net on 76′. 1–1. 1–1 · 9–54–37
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' National Defense 1–1 Phnom Penh Crown
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Phnom Penh Crown win: 81% at kick-off, 37% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Phnom Penh Crown win 91%)
77′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 8–56–35
78′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 8–59–33
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Phnom Penh Crown win: 81% at kick-off, 31% now
80′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 7–64–29
83′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 6–72–22
84′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 5–75–19
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Phnom Penh Crown win: 81% at kick-off, 19% now
88′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 4–83–14
88′PENALTY MISSED · 87' National Defense
89′A goal for Phnom Penh Crown on 89′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' National Defense
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' National Defense 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Phnom Penh Crown win: 81% at kick-off, 97% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Phnom Penh Crown win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 84%)
90′We said Phnom Penh Crown at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–2 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME National Defense 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown
FTNational Defense 1–2 Phnom Penh Crown · Phnom Penh Crown win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phnom Penh Crown are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: National Defense 8%, draw 11%, Phnom Penh Crown 81%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on National Defense v Phnom Penh CrownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

National Defense win8%

Draw11%

Phnom Penh Crown win81%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueRCAF Old Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

National Defense

Phnom Penh Crown

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · C-League

Last match: 19 Oct · C-League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Phnom Penh Crown	3	0	3
11	National Defense	4	−16	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phnom penh crown winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

81% The market83%

Us81%

~~Market~~83%

We make Phnom Penh Crown an 81% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–3.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · National Defense v Phnom Penh Crown~~0.99 – 3.49

~~Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D0 L4 · W0 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~11 v 7

~~The market · Phnom Penh Crown win~~83% · ours 81%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Phnom Penh Crown win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
National Defense win	8%	7%	+1
Draw	11%	10%	+1
Phnom Penh Crown win	81%	83%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
National Defense or draw	19%	17%	+2
National Defense clean sheet	4%	–	–
Phnom Penh Crown clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 7.6%

0123450 4.3 7.0 7.6 6.5 4.71 4.5 6.8 7.3 6.1 4.32 2.3 3.5 3.7 3.0 2.13 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+National Defense down, Phnom Penh Crown across0–5 goals a side shown (84.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 C-League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

National Defense at home: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Phnom Penh Crown away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for National Defense, 3.49 for Phnom Penh Crown. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PHN 3–2 NAT · NAT 1–1 PHN · PHN 3–1 NAT · NAT 1–2 PHN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept

NATIONAL DEFENSE

LLLL1–6 · 0–4 · 4–5 · 0–6

PHNOM PENH CROWN

DDD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	4	+9	12
2	Svay Rieng	4	+10	10
3	NagaWorld	4	+3	10
4	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
5	Angkor Tiger	4	+5	5
6	Kompong Dewa	4	−1	4
7	Phnom Penh Crown	3	0	3
8	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	4	−9	3
9	Life Sihanoukville	3	−3	1
10	Boeung Ket	3	−4	1
11	National Defense	4	−16	0