NagaWorld v Kompong Dewa prediction · C-League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

NagaWorld 1–0 Kompong Dewa NAGAWORLD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NagaWorld win~~37%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.592

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NagaWorld win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: NagaWorld 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF NagaWorld v Kompong Dewa
15′NagaWorld find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
15′We said NagaWorld at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' NagaWorld 1–0 Kompong Dewa
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' NagaWorld win: 37% at kick-off, 65% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' NagaWorld win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–11
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' NagaWorld
41′We said NagaWorld at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME NagaWorld 1–0 Kompong Dewa
46′SECOND HALF NagaWorld 1–0 Kompong Dewa
58′We said NagaWorld at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' NagaWorld win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
68′We said NagaWorld at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
76′We said NagaWorld at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' NagaWorld win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
82′We said NagaWorld at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kompong Dewa
88′We said NagaWorld at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' NagaWorld
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' NagaWorld win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Kompong Dewa
FTFULL TIME NagaWorld 1–0 Kompong Dewa
FTNagaWorld 1–0 Kompong Dewa · NagaWorld win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with NagaWorld just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: NagaWorld 37%, draw 27%, Kompong Dewa 36%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on NagaWorld v Kompong DewaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NagaWorld win37%

Draw27%

Kompong Dewa win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueKampong Speu Stadium

Line-ups

NagaWorld

Kompong Dewa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NagaWorld

Kompong Dewa

28Days since last match27

Last match: 19 Sept · C-League

Last match: 20 Sept · C-League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	NagaWorld	3	+2	7
5	Kompong Dewa	3	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NagaWorld

Formation not confirmed

31 S. Sambath

79 P. Sokha

4 B. Chhong

10 P. Ean

11 M. Hamisi

14 Onda Sonosuke

15 U. Devin

20 Kibe

26 S. Chea

70 Felipe Paim

99 Bernardo

Coach · Khim Borey

Substitutes

3 · Matheus Mega

8 · T. Vann

12 · S. Sos

18 · S. Mohamatsorles

23 · S. Nen

27 · S. Nat

29 · P. Phoy

33 · S. Seng

63 · T. Ladin

77 · Rafael Klein

Kompong Dewa

Formation not confirmed

28 Dida

2 K. In

6 S. Chan

8 T. Masutani

17 N. Khorn

20 A. Mirzaev

22 Kim Hyeon-su

44 Pedrao

54 V. Mon

66 P. Dy

96 Charleston

Coach · Alex Dorado

Substitutes

7 · O. Keo

9 · M. Sitha

13 · S. Saveng

14 · T. Sonn

16 · S. Ny

18 · S. San

23 · B. San

39 · S. Phach

47 · S. Soeun

65 · V. Vong

Our number · nagaworld winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market41%

Us37%

~~Market~~41%

We make NagaWorld a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NagaWorld v Kompong Dewa~~1.32 – 1.29

~~Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~3 v 5

~~The market · NagaWorld win~~41% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NagaWorld win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NagaWorld win	37%	41%	−4
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Kompong Dewa win	36%	34%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	59%	−11
Both teams to score	52%	62%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	73%	80%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	27%	37%	−10
NagaWorld or draw	64%	66%	−2
NagaWorld clean sheet	28%	–	–
Kompong Dewa clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.0 9.3 6.1 2.7 1 9.5 12.4 7.8 3.4 2 6.4 8.0 5.1 2.2 3 2.9 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NagaWorld down, Kompong Dewa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 688 C-League matches up to 20 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NagaWorld at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kompong Dewa away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for NagaWorld, 1.29 for Kompong Dewa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NAG 1–3 KOM · KOM 0–2 NAG · KOM 0–3 NAG · NAG 1–2 KOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept

NAGAWORLD

DWW2–2 · 1–0 · 5–4

KOMPONG DEWA

DLW0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	3	+8	9
2	Svay Rieng	3	+7	7
3	NagaWorld	3	+2	7
4	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
5	Kompong Dewa	3	0	4
6	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	3	−8	3
7	Phnom Penh Crown	2	0	2
8	Angkor Tiger	3	−1	2
9	Boeung Ket	2	−1	1
10	Life Sihanoukville	2	−3	0
11	National Defense	3	−10	0