Kirivong Sok Sen Chey v Visakha prediction · C-League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 2–3 Visakha VISAKHA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Visakha win~~77%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.081

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.077

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Visakha win at 77%.
1′Much as we predicted: Visakha was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 9–14–77
1′KICK-OFF Kirivong Sok Sen Chey v Visakha
4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Kirivong Sok Sen Chey
7′Visakha find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–7–91
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 0–1 Visakha
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Visakha win: 77% at kick-off, 91% now
8′We published Visakha at 77%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–1 · 3–7–91
8′GOAL DISALLOWED · 8' Visakha
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Visakha win: 77% at kick-off, 75% now
27′Visakha find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–8–90
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 0–1 Visakha
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Visakha win: 77% at kick-off, 90% now
30′We published Visakha at 77%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–1 · 2–8–89
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 2–8–89
35′A goal for Visakha on 35′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 0–2 Visakha
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Visakha win: 77% at kick-off, 98% now
36′We published Visakha at 77%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
45′HALF-TIME Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 0–2 Visakha
46′SECOND HALF Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 0–2 Visakha
49′Visakha score on 49′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
49′We published Visakha at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 0–3 Visakha
68′Kirivong Sok Sen Chey find the net on 67′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
68′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 1–3 Visakha
74′A goal for Kirivong Sok Sen Chey on 73′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–8–91
74′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–8–91
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 2–3 Visakha
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Visakha win: 77% at kick-off, 91% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Visakha win: 77% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 2–3 Visakha
FTKirivong Sok Sen Chey 2–3 Visakha · Visakha win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Visakha are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 9%, draw 14%, Visakha 77%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kirivong Sok Sen Chey v VisakhaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kirivong Sok Sen Chey win9%

Draw14%

Visakha win77%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 4

VenueKirivong Sok Sen Chey Stadium

Line-ups

Kirivong Sok Sen Chey

Visakha

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kirivong Sok Sen Chey

Visakha

27Days since last match28

Last match: 20 Sept · C-League

Last match: 19 Sept · C-League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kirivong Sok Sen Chey

Formation not confirmed

45 S. Sou

99 J. Campbell

8 H. Mizuno

10 D. Kouch

11 L. Hall

12 O. Ath

19 M. Touch

70 L. W. Ndongo

77 M. Sot

87 S. Baddy Dega

97 J. Tarasenko

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Przybek

6 · R. Sros

7 · S. Huy

13 · H. Chou

15 · M. Koeut

17 · V. Lim

18 · R. Dor

23 · S. Sombo Rithy

24 · V. Sao

46 · D. Hang

Visakha

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Keo

11 K. Sin

4 Lucao

5 R. Sor

7 U. D. Ewolo

15 P. O. Gai

19 M. Chheng

21 C. Silveira

27 S. Ouk

28 J. Cuellar

70 A. Nieto

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · P. Lim

25 · C. Ken

29 · Eduardo Thuram

34 · K. Tha

37 · R. Sieam

42 · C. Sorn

56 · R. Soeun

77 · S. Hav

88 · S. Sin

99 · N. Leng

Our number · visakha winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

77% The market78%

Us77%

~~Market~~78%

We make Visakha a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.8–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kirivong Sok Sen Chey v Visakha~~0.82 – 2.78

~~Form · C-League this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~6 v 1

~~The market · Visakha win~~78% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Visakha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey win	9%	8%	+1
Draw	14%	14%	0
Visakha win	77%	78%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	48%	48%	0
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey or draw	23%	22%	+1
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey clean sheet	7%	–	–
Visakha clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.5%

0123450 3.2 7.8 10.5 9.6 6.7 3.91 2.3 6.4 8.3 7.5 5.2 3.02 2.6 3.5 3.1 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kirivong Sok Sen Chey down, Visakha across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 688 C-League matches up to 20 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kirivong Sok Sen Chey at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Visakha away: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Kirivong Sok Sen Chey, 2.78 for Visakha. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIS 3–0 KIR · KIR 1–3 VIS · VIS 2–1 KIR · KIR 0–0 VIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 6 Sept

KIRIVONG SOK SEN CHEY

LLW0–3 · 0–6 · 2–1

VISAKHA

WWW6–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	3	+8	9
2	Svay Rieng	3	+7	7
3	NagaWorld	3	+2	7
4	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
5	Kompong Dewa	3	0	4
6	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	3	−8	3
7	Phnom Penh Crown	2	0	2
8	Angkor Tiger	3	−1	2
9	Boeung Ket	2	−1	1
10	Life Sihanoukville	2	−3	0
11	National Defense	3	−10	0