Dangkor Senchey v Angkor Tiger prediction · C-League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dangkor SencheyDrawAngkor Tiger

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Angkor Tiger 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Angkor Tiger are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dangkor Senchey 23%, draw 19%, Angkor Tiger 58%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Dangkor Senchey v Angkor TigerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Dangkor Senchey win23%

Draw19%

Angkor Tiger win58%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueAIA Stadium KMH PARK

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dangkor Senchey

Angkor Tiger

35Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Sept · C-League

Last match: 18 Oct · C-League

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
6	Angkor Tiger	4	+5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · angkor tiger winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market45%

Us58%

~~Market~~45%

We make Angkor Tiger a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dangkor Senchey v Angkor Tiger~~1.45 – 2.43

~~Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~5 v 6

~~The market · Angkor Tiger win~~45% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Angkor Tiger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dangkor Senchey win	23%	31%	−8
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Angkor Tiger win	58%	45%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	73%	66%	+7
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	86%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	54%	47%	+7
Dangkor Senchey or draw	42%	55%	−13
Dangkor Senchey clean sheet	10%	–	–
Angkor Tiger clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.5 5.1 6.1 4.9 3.0 1 3.1 7.5 8.5 6.7 4.1 2.12 2.3 5.3 6.1 4.8 2.9 3 2.6 3.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dangkor Senchey down, Angkor Tiger across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 695 C-League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.29 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dangkor Senchey at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Angkor Tiger away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Dangkor Senchey, 2.43 for Angkor Tiger. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.29

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DAN 2–2 ANG · ANG 8–0 DAN · ANG 2–2 DAN · DAN 0–2 ANG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept

DANGKOR SENCHEY

DWD3–3 · 6–0 · 1–1

ANGKOR TIGER

DDLW0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	5	+9	13
2	Svay Rieng	5	+10	11
3	NagaWorld	4	+3	10
4	Phnom Penh Crown	4	+1	6
5	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
6	Angkor Tiger	4	+5	5
7	Kompong Dewa	4	−1	4
8	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	4	−9	3
9	Life Sihanoukville	3	−3	1
10	Boeung Ket	3	−4	1
11	National Defense	5	−17	0