Boeung Ket v NagaWorld prediction · C-League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Boeung KetDrawNagaWorld

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Boeung Ket 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boeung Ket are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boeung Ket 45%, draw 25%, NagaWorld 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Boeung Ket v NagaWorldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Boeung Ket win45%

Draw25%

NagaWorld win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueNational Olympic Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boeung Ket

NagaWorld

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · C-League

Last match: 17 Oct · C-League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	NagaWorld	4	+3	10
10	Boeung Ket	3	−4	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boeung ket winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Boeung Ket a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boeung Ket v NagaWorld~~1.58 – 1.25

~~Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 10~~10 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boeung Ket win	45%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
NagaWorld win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Boeung Ket or draw	70%	–	–
Boeung Ket clean sheet	29%	–	–
NagaWorld clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.6 7.3 4.7 1 9.2 11.6 7.1 3.0 2 7.3 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.9 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boeung Ket down, NagaWorld across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 C-League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boeung Ket at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). NagaWorld away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Boeung Ket, 1.25 for NagaWorld. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAG 1–3 BOE · BOE 1–0 NAG · NAG 2–0 BOE · BOE 1–1 NAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept

BOEUNG KET

DLL3–3 · 1–2 · 1–4

NAGAWORLD

DWWW2–2 · 1–0 · 5–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	5	+9	13
2	Svay Rieng	5	+10	11
3	NagaWorld	4	+3	10
4	Phnom Penh Crown	4	+1	6
5	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
6	Angkor Tiger	4	+5	5
7	Kompong Dewa	4	−1	4
8	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	4	−9	3
9	Life Sihanoukville	3	−3	1
10	Boeung Ket	3	−4	1
11	National Defense	5	−17	0