Angkor Tiger v National Defense prediction · C-League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Angkor Tiger 6–0 National Defense ANGKOR TIGER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Angkor Tiger win~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.085

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Angkor Tiger win at 76%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Angkor Tiger 76% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 76–13–11
1′KICK-OFF Angkor Tiger v National Defense
8′A goal for Angkor Tiger on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–7–4
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Angkor Tiger 1–0 National Defense
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Angkor Tiger win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
9′We said Angkor Tiger at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–7–4
25′Angkor Tiger score on 25′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Angkor Tiger 2–0 National Defense
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Angkor Tiger win: 76% at kick-off, 96% now
26′We said Angkor Tiger at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' National Defense
31′The goal count is tracking the 4.7 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Angkor Tiger 3–0 National Defense
46′Angkor Tiger find the net on 45′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Angkor Tiger 3–0 National Defense
46′SECOND HALF Angkor Tiger 3–0 National Defense
54′We said Angkor Tiger at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′A goal for Angkor Tiger on 63′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Angkor Tiger 4–0 National Defense
68′Angkor Tiger score on 68′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
68′5 goals already, more than the 4.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Angkor Tiger 5–0 National Defense
82′Angkor Tiger find the net on 82′. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
82′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.7 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Angkor Tiger 6–0 National Defense
FTFULL TIME Angkor Tiger 6–0 National Defense
FTAngkor Tiger 6–0 National Defense · Angkor Tiger win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Angkor Tiger are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Angkor Tiger 76%, draw 12%, National Defense 11%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Angkor Tiger v National DefenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Angkor Tiger win76%

Draw12%

National Defense win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueHanuman Stadium

Line-ups

Angkor Tiger

National Defense

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Angkor Tiger

National Defense

28Days since last match29

Last match: 20 Sept · C-League

Last match: 19 Sept · C-League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Angkor Tiger	3	−1	2
11	National Defense	3	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Angkor Tiger

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Riera Rodriguez

39 T. Yasuoka

3 P. Yang

4 V. Im

10 M. Aguek

11 M. Akatsuka

17 S. Sofan

20 S. Ly

24 S. Chhom

27 N. Chenmakara

87 R. Hoogenhout

Coach · Sotaro Yasunaga

Substitutes

7 · S. Mensah

13 · C. Vansak

14 · T. Makara

16 · M. Sou

18 · S. Beth

19 · D. Chanvibol

21 · N. Koy

26 · S. Moth

71 · P. You

88 · O. Kimsou

National Defense

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Um

8 T. Misawa

2 O. Vinun

3 P. Vorn

4 R. Buth

5 T. Naoki

9 J. Agostinho

10 M. Bakayoko

11 S. Nat

15 V. Suk

88 U. Samura

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · N. Choeun

12 · S. Chun

14 · Z. Saly

20 · F. Tep

21 · N. Dav

23 · S. Sreng

25 · D. Thorng

27 · D. Pich

32 · M. Chhun

77 · S. Schylar

Our number · angkor tiger winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Angkor Tiger a 76% chance to win. The model expects 3.5–1.2, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Angkor Tiger v National Defense~~3.46 – 1.22

~~Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 0~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Angkor Tiger win	76%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
National Defense win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	67%	–	–
Angkor Tiger or draw	89%	–	–
Angkor Tiger clean sheet	30%	–	–
National Defense clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.0%

0123450 1 3.6 4.6 2.9 2 5.6 6.8 4.2 3 6.0 7.0 4.3 4 5.0 5.8 3.5 5 3.6 4.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Angkor Tiger down, National Defense across0–5 goals a side shown (84.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 690 C-League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: C-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 10 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Angkor Tiger at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). National Defense away: 0.67 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.46 goals for Angkor Tiger, 1.22 for National Defense. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ANG 7–1 NAT · NAT 0–3 ANG · NAT 3–3 ANG · ANG 0–3 NAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · C-League this season · since 5 Sept

ANGKOR TIGER

DDL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

NATIONAL DEFENSE

LLL1–6 · 0–4 · 4–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Visakha	4	+9	12
2	NagaWorld	4	+3	10
3	Svay Rieng	3	+7	7
4	Dangkor Senchey	3	+6	5
5	Kompong Dewa	4	−1	4
6	Kirivong Sok Sen Chey	4	−9	3
7	Phnom Penh Crown	2	0	2
8	Angkor Tiger	3	−1	2
9	Boeung Ket	2	−1	1
10	Life Sihanoukville	2	−3	0
11	National Defense	3	−10	0