Young Star v Panthere Noir prediction · Ligue A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Young StarDrawPanthere Noir

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Young Star 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Young Star just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Young Star 36%, draw 29%, Panthere Noir 36%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Young Star v Panthere NoirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Young Star win36%

Draw29%

Panthere Noir win36%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Young Star

Panthere Noir

13Days since last match12

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · young star winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Young Star a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Young Star v Panthere Noir~~1.25 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 1~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Young Star win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Panthere Noir win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Young Star or draw	64%	–	–
Young Star clean sheet	30%	–	–
Panthere Noir clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.5 9.6 6.4 2.7 1 9.7 13.3 7.7 3.2 2 6.5 7.7 4.8 2.0 3 2.7 3.3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Young Star down, Panthere Noir across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 Ligue A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Young Star at home: 0.75 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Panthere Noir away: 0.25 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Young Star, 1.24 for Panthere Noir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug

YOUNG STAR

LLLLDW1–2 · 1–5 · 0–7 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

PANTHERE NOIR

LDLLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	9	+19	21
2	Muzinga	9	+6	18
3	Rukinzo	6	+11	14
4	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Aigle Noir	8	+2	12
7	Ngozi City	8	−2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Inter Star	6	−1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1