Young Star v Never Give Up Academy prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:22

Young Star 2–0 Never Give Up Academy NEVER GIVE UP ACADEMY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Never Give Up Academy win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

Corrected on 20 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 0–0; the score is now 2–0 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Never Give Up Academy are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Young Star 31%, draw 28%, Never Give Up Academy 41%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Young Star v Never Give Up AcademyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Young Star win31%

Draw28%

Never Give Up Academy win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Young Star

Never Give Up Academy

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue A

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Never Give Up Academy	6	−3	5
15	Young Star	7	−17	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · never give up academy winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:42 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Never Give Up Academy a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Young Star v Never Give Up Academy~~1.17 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 5~~15 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Never Give Up Academy win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Young Star win	31%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Never Give Up Academy win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Young Star or draw	59%	–	–
Young Star clean sheet	26%	–	–
Never Give Up Academy clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.0 10.1 7.4 3.5 1 8.5 13.1 8.4 3.9 2 5.4 7.1 4.9 2.3 3 2.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Young Star down, Never Give Up Academy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 Ligue A matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Young Star at home: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 3). Never Give Up Academy away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Young Star, 1.37 for Never Give Up Academy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug

YOUNG STAR

DLLLLD0–0 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–7 · 0–3 · 1–1

NEVER GIVE UP ACADEMY

LWDLLD0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	7	+19	19
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	6	−3	5
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Young Star	7	−17	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1