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Young Star v Bumamuru

Young Star

0–3Full time

Bumamuru

Ligue A · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:04

Young Star 0–3 Bumamuru BUMAMURU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bumamuru win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Young Star win20%

Draw24%

Bumamuru win56%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bumamuru winPublished 9 Oct 16:36

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Bumamuru a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Young Star win	20%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Bumamuru win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Young Star or draw	44%	–	–
Young Star clean sheet	17%	–	–
Bumamuru clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 7.1 10.5 9.9 6.0 2.8 1 5.5 11.2 9.4 5.7 2.7 2 3.0 5.2 4.7 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Young Star down, Bumamuru across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,237 Ligue A matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Young Star at home: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). Bumamuru away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Young Star, 1.82 for Bumamuru. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Ligue A

YOUNG STAR

LDLLL0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–7

BUMAMURU

LLDWLL0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	5	+11	13
2	Muzinga	5	+4	10
3	Aigle Noir	5	+3	10
4	Le Messager Ngozi	4	+3	10
5	Ngozi City	5	+2	9
6	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
7	Vital'O	5	−3	8
8	Olympic Star	5	0	6
9	Flambeau du Centre	4	0	5
10	Kayanza United	5	−1	4
11	Bumamuru	5	−2	4
12	Never Give Up Academy	4	−2	4
13	Musongati	5	−4	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	5	−14	1