Vital'O v Muzinga prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Vital'O 0–0 Muzinga VITAL'O WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vital'O win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vital'O are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vital'O 51%, draw 26%, Muzinga 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Vital'O v MuzingaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vital'O win51%

Draw26%

Muzinga win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueIntwari Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vital'O

Muzinga

3Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vital'o winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Vital'O a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vital'O v Muzinga~~1.63 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~10 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vital'O win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vital'O win	51%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Muzinga win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Vital'O or draw	77%	–	–
Vital'O clean sheet	38%	–	–
Muzinga clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.6 6.6 3.7 1 11.1 12.3 5.7 2 9.4 9.1 4.5 3 5.1 4.9 2.5 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vital'O down, Muzinga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,250 Ligue A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vital'O at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Muzinga away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Vital'O, 1.00 for Muzinga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIT 1–1 MUZ · MUZ 1–2 VIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug

VITAL'O

DWDWLL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–5 · 1–3

MUZINGA

LWWDWD1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	7	−3	6
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Young Star	8	−17	3
15	Inter Star	4	−2	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1