Rukinzo v Ngozi City prediction · Ligue A

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Rukinzo win66%

Draw20%

Ngozi City win14%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rukinzo

Ngozi City

11Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
7	Rukinzo	4	+8	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rukinzo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Rukinzo a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rukinzo win

Published at 63%, 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rukinzo win	66%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Ngozi City win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Rukinzo or draw	86%	–	–
Rukinzo clean sheet	42%	–	–
Ngozi City clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 5.4 3.7 1 9.4 9.2 4.0 2 10.6 9.2 4.2 3 7.8 6.7 3.0 4 4.5 3.8 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Rukinzo down, Ngozi City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,243 Ligue A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rukinzo at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ngozi City away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Rukinzo, 0.90 for Ngozi City. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RUK 4–2 NGO · NGO 0–3 RUK · RUK 3–2 NGO · NGO 1–1 RUK

Form · last six in Ligue A

RUKINZO

WDWDDW4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 7–0

NGOZI CITY

WLWWLL2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	6	+16	16
2	Muzinga	6	+5	13
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
5	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
6	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
7	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
8	Vital'O	5	−3	8
9	Bumamuru	6	+1	7
10	Musongati	6	−2	7
11	Flambeau du Centre	5	−1	5
12	Kayanza United	6	−1	5
13	Never Give Up Academy	5	−3	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	6	−17	1