Rukinzo v Aigle Noir prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Rukinzo 1–0 Aigle Noir RUKINZO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rukinzo win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rukinzo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rukinzo 41%, draw 27%, Aigle Noir 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Rukinzo v Aigle NoirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rukinzo win41%

Draw27%

Aigle Noir win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rukinzo

Aigle Noir

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
7	Rukinzo	5	+10	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rukinzo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Rukinzo a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rukinzo v Aigle Noir~~1.44 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug~~W3 D2 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rukinzo win

Published at 40%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rukinzo win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Aigle Noir win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Rukinzo or draw	68%	–	–
Rukinzo clean sheet	30%	–	–
Aigle Noir clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 7.9 5.4 2.3 1 9.1 12.7 7.3 3.1 2 7.0 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.4 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rukinzo down, Aigle Noir across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,258 Ligue A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rukinzo at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aigle Noir away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Rukinzo, 1.24 for Aigle Noir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RUK 0–0 AIG · AIG 2–1 RUK · AIG 2–0 RUK · RUK 2–1 AIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug

RUKINZO

WDDWW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 7–0 · 3–1

AIGLE NOIR

DWLWDD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	9	+19	21
2	Muzinga	9	+6	18
3	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
4	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Ngozi City	8	−2	12
7	Rukinzo	5	+10	11
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Inter Star	6	−1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1