Royal Vision v Inter Star prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Royal Vision 1–1 Inter Star ROYAL VISION WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Royal Vision win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.076

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Royal Vision are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Royal Vision 64%, draw 20%, Inter Star 16%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Royal Vision v Inter StarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Royal Vision win64%

Draw20%

Inter Star win16%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Royal Vision

Inter Star

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · royal vision winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Royal Vision a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Royal Vision v Inter Star~~2.32 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 5~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Royal Vision win

Published at 65%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Royal Vision win	64%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Inter Star win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Royal Vision or draw	84%	–	–
Royal Vision clean sheet	36%	–	–
Inter Star clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 4.6 3.5 2.1 1 7.8 9.1 4.4 2 9.1 9.1 4.7 3 6.8 6.8 3.5 4 4.1 4.0 2.1 5 2.1 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Royal Vision down, Inter Star across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,256 Ligue A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Royal Vision at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Star away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Royal Vision, 1.04 for Inter Star. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~INT 1–1 ROY · ROY 3–1 INT · INT 1–2 ROY · ROY 1–2 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug

ROYAL VISION

WWWWWD2–1 · 5–1 · 5–0 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

INTER STAR

DLLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	8	+5	15
3	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
4	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Ngozi City	7	−1	12
7	Rukinzo	5	+10	11
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
12	Inter Star	5	−1	5
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1