Olympic Star v Panthere Noir prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Olympic Star 2–0 Panthere Noir OLYMPIC STAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olympic Star win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.306

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympic Star are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympic Star 55%, draw 27%, Panthere Noir 17%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Olympic Star v Panthere NoirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Olympic Star win55%

Draw27%

Panthere Noir win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympic Star

Panthere Noir

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olympic star winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:42 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Olympic Star a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympic Star v Panthere Noir~~1.53 – 0.72

~~Form · Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 1~~7 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympic Star win

Published at 54%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympic Star win	55%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Panthere Noir win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Olympic Star or draw	83%	–	–
Olympic Star clean sheet	49%	–	–
Panthere Noir clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 11.9 7.0 2.9 1 15.2 12.1 4.2 2 12.0 8.3 3.0 3 6.2 4.3 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympic Star down, Panthere Noir across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,250 Ligue A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Olympic Star at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Panthere Noir away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Olympic Star, 0.72 for Panthere Noir. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug

OLYMPIC STAR

LDDWDW1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

PANTHERE NOIR

LDLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	7	−3	6
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Young Star	8	−17	3
15	Inter Star	4	−2	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1