Ngozi City v Royal Vision prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ngozi City 0–5 Royal Vision ROYAL VISION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Royal Vision win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ngozi City win28%

Draw24%

Royal Vision win47%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ngozi City

Royal Vision

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	5	+11	13
5	Ngozi City	5	+2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · royal vision winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Royal Vision a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ngozi City win	28%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Royal Vision win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Ngozi City or draw	53%	–	–
Ngozi City clean sheet	18%	–	–
Royal Vision clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.6 7.5 7.0 4.2 2.0 1 5.6 11.0 8.8 5.2 2.5 2 4.1 6.8 5.8 3.4 3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ngozi City down, Royal Vision across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,241 Ligue A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ngozi City at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Royal Vision away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Ngozi City, 1.79 for Royal Vision. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ROY 2–1 NGO · NGO 1–0 ROY · NGO 1–1 ROY · ROY 1–1 NGO

Form · last six in Ligue A

NGOZI CITY

LWLWWL0–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

ROYAL VISION

LWDWWW0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	5	+11	13
2	Muzinga	6	+5	13
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Le Messager Ngozi	4	+3	10
5	Ngozi City	5	+2	9
6	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
7	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
8	Vital'O	5	−3	8
9	Bumamuru	6	+1	7
10	Flambeau du Centre	5	−1	5
11	Kayanza United	6	−1	5
12	Never Give Up Academy	5	−3	4
13	Musongati	5	−4	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	6	−17	1