Ngozi City v Bumamuru prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Ngozi City 2–0 Bumamuru BUMAMURU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bumamuru win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bumamuru are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ngozi City 29%, draw 26%, Bumamuru 45%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Ngozi City v BumamuruBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ngozi City win29%

Draw26%

Bumamuru win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ngozi City

Bumamuru

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 15 Oct · Ligue A

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bumamuru winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Bumamuru a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ngozi City v Bumamuru~~1.22 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bumamuru win

Published at 44%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ngozi City win	29%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Bumamuru win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Ngozi City or draw	55%	–	–
Ngozi City clean sheet	21%	–	–
Bumamuru clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 9.0 7.6 4.1 1 6.8 12.2 8.8 4.7 2 4.6 6.9 5.3 2.8 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ngozi City down, Bumamuru across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,250 Ligue A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ngozi City at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bumamuru away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Ngozi City, 1.59 for Bumamuru. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NGO 0–0 BUM · BUM 0–1 NGO · BUM 2–0 NGO · NGO 2–2 BUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug

NGOZI CITY

WLWWLL2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–5

BUMAMURU

DWLLWW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	7	−3	6
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Young Star	8	−17	3
15	Inter Star	4	−2	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1