Muzinga v Young Star prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Muzinga 1–1 Young Star MUZINGA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Muzinga win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

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2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

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3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

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The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:47 · locked at kick-off

Muzinga win65%

Draw21%

Young Star win14%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Muzinga

Young Star

3Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Muzinga	6	+5	13
16	Young Star	6	−17	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muzinga winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 13:47 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Muzinga a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · muzinga win

Published at 61%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Muzinga win	65%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Young Star win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Muzinga or draw	86%	–	–
Muzinga clean sheet	43%	–	–
Young Star clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 6.4 4.2 2.0 1 10.7 9.9 4.0 2 11.3 9.4 4.0 3 7.8 6.4 2.7 4 4.2 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Muzinga down, Young Star across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,243 Ligue A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Muzinga at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Young Star away: 0.33 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Muzinga, 0.85 for Young Star. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Ligue A since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Ligue A

MUZINGA

WLWWDW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

YOUNG STAR

LDLLLL0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–7 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	6	+16	16
2	Muzinga	6	+5	13
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
5	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
6	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
7	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
8	Vital'O	5	−3	8
9	Bumamuru	6	+1	7
10	Musongati	6	−2	7
11	Flambeau du Centre	5	−1	5
12	Kayanza United	6	−1	5
13	Never Give Up Academy	5	−3	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	6	−17	1