Muzinga v Ngozi City prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Muzinga 1–0 Ngozi City MUZINGA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Muzinga win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muzinga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muzinga 45%, draw 27%, Ngozi City 27%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Muzinga v Ngozi CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Muzinga win45%

Draw27%

Ngozi City win27%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muzinga

Ngozi City

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Muzinga	8	+5	15
6	Ngozi City	7	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muzinga winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Muzinga a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Muzinga v Ngozi City~~1.50 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 12~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Muzinga win

Published at 47%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Muzinga win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Ngozi City win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Muzinga or draw	73%	–	–
Muzinga clean sheet	34%	–	–
Ngozi City clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.7 7.5 4.6 1 10.5 12.7 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 8.8 4.8 3 4.2 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Muzinga down, Ngozi City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,256 Ligue A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Muzinga at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ngozi City away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Muzinga, 1.10 for Ngozi City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NGO 2–1 MUZ · MUZ 0–0 NGO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 23 Aug

MUZINGA

WWDWDD1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

NGOZI CITY

LWWLLW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	8	+5	15
3	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
4	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Ngozi City	7	−1	12
7	Rukinzo	5	+10	11
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
12	Inter Star	5	−1	5
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1