Musongati v Olympic Star prediction · Ligue A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MusongatiDrawOlympic Star

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Musongati 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Musongati are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Musongati 45%, draw 32%, Olympic Star 24%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Musongati v Olympic StarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Musongati win45%

Draw32%

Olympic Star win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Musongati

Olympic Star

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
9	Musongati	8	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · musongati winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Musongati a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Musongati v Olympic Star~~1.19 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Musongati win	45%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Olympic Star win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Musongati or draw	76%	–	–
Musongati clean sheet	46%	–	–
Olympic Star clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.3 10.1 4.3 1 15.7 13.2 4.9 2 9.7 7.4 2.9 3 4.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Musongati down, Olympic Star across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 Ligue A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Musongati at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic Star away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Musongati, 0.78 for Olympic Star. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUS 1–0 OLY · OLY 0–1 MUS · OLY 1–2 MUS · MUS 3–0 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 23 Aug

MUSONGATI

LLWWWL0–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

OLYMPIC STAR

DDWDWW0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	9	+19	21
2	Muzinga	9	+6	18
3	Rukinzo	6	+11	14
4	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Aigle Noir	8	+2	12
7	Ngozi City	8	−2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Inter Star	6	−1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1