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Musongati v Le Messager Ngozi

Musongati

3–1Full time

Le Messager Ngozi

Ligue A · FRI 9 OCT

Not gradedCorrected 16 Oct 17:17

Corrected on 16 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 3–1. It was played on 11 Oct 14:00, more than three hours after the kick-off we published for, so this prediction is not graded and is not in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Musongati win44%

Draw34%

Le Messager Ngozi win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · musongati winPublished 9 Oct 08:30

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Musongati a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Musongati win	44%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Le Messager Ngozi win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Musongati or draw	78%	–	–
Musongati clean sheet	51%	–	–
Le Messager Ngozi clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.5%

0123450 18.5 10.8 4.0 1 17.5 12.9 4.2 2 9.9 6.6 2.3 3 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Musongati down, Le Messager Ngozi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,237 Ligue A matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.30 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Musongati at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Le Messager Ngozi away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Musongati, 0.68 for Le Messager Ngozi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEM 0–1 MUS · MUS 1–0 LEM · MUS 0–1 LEM · LEM 0–0 MUS

Form · last six in Ligue A

MUSONGATI

WLDLLW3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–0

LE MESSAGER NGOZI

WWWWDW2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	5	+11	13
2	Muzinga	5	+4	10
3	Aigle Noir	5	+3	10
4	Le Messager Ngozi	4	+3	10
5	Ngozi City	5	+2	9
6	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
7	Vital'O	5	−3	8
8	Olympic Star	5	0	6
9	Flambeau du Centre	4	0	5
10	Kayanza United	5	−1	4
11	Bumamuru	5	−2	4
12	Never Give Up Academy	4	−2	4
13	Musongati	5	−4	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	5	−14	1