Le Messager Ngozi v Olympic Star prediction · Ligue A

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Le Messager Ngozi win35%

Draw34%

Olympic Star win31%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Le Messager Ngozi

Olympic Star

3Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
5	Olympic Star	6	+1	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · le messager ngozi winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Le Messager Ngozi a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · le messager ngozi win

Published at 36%, 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Le Messager Ngozi win	35%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Olympic Star win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Le Messager Ngozi or draw	69%	–	–
Le Messager Ngozi clean sheet	42%	–	–
Olympic Star clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.2%

0123450 17.2 13.1 6.2 1 14.3 13.7 5.7 2 7.3 6.2 2.8 3 2.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Le Messager Ngozi down, Olympic Star across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,243 Ligue A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.10 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Le Messager Ngozi at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic Star away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Le Messager Ngozi, 0.88 for Olympic Star. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.10

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OLY 1–3 LEM · LEM 0–0 OLY · LEM 0–0 OLY · OLY 2–0 LEM

Form · last six in Ligue A

LE MESSAGER NGOZI

WWWDWL3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

OLYMPIC STAR

LDDWDW1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	6	+16	16
2	Muzinga	6	+5	13
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
5	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
6	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
7	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
8	Vital'O	5	−3	8
9	Bumamuru	6	+1	7
10	Musongati	6	−2	7
11	Flambeau du Centre	5	−1	5
12	Kayanza United	6	−1	5
13	Never Give Up Academy	5	−3	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	6	−17	1