Kayanza United v Rukinzo prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Kayanza United 1–3 Rukinzo RUKINZO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rukinzo win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rukinzo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kayanza United 20%, draw 25%, Rukinzo 55%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Kayanza United v RukinzoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kayanza United win20%

Draw25%

Rukinzo win55%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kayanza United

Rukinzo

4Days since last match15

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 3 Oct · Ligue A

3Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rukinzo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:42 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Rukinzo a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kayanza United v Rukinzo~~0.99 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rukinzo win

Published at 54%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kayanza United win	20%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Rukinzo win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Kayanza United or draw	45%	–	–
Kayanza United clean sheet	18%	–	–
Rukinzo clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.5 10.5 9.8 5.9 2.8 1 5.6 11.5 9.3 5.5 2.6 2 3.2 5.3 4.6 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kayanza United down, Rukinzo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,250 Ligue A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kayanza United at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rukinzo away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Kayanza United, 1.79 for Rukinzo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RUK 4–1 KAY · KAY 1–2 RUK · KAY 0–2 RUK · RUK 4–2 KAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 14 Aug

KAYANZA UNITED

DDLDDL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

RUKINZO

WDDW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	7	−3	6
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Young Star	8	−17	3
15	Inter Star	4	−2	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1