Kayanza United v Muzinga prediction · Ligue A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kayanza UnitedDrawMuzinga

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Muzinga 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Muzinga just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kayanza United 34%, draw 29%, Muzinga 38%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Kayanza United v MuzingaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kayanza United win34%

Draw29%

Muzinga win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kayanza United

Muzinga

13Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 23 Oct · Ligue A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Muzinga	9	+6	18
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muzinga winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Muzinga a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kayanza United v Muzinga~~1.16 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 18~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kayanza United win	34%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Muzinga win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Kayanza United or draw	62%	–	–
Kayanza United clean sheet	30%	–	–
Muzinga clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.2 10.5 7.0 3.0 1 9.7 13.4 7.8 3.3 2 6.1 7.3 4.5 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kayanza United down, Muzinga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 Ligue A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kayanza United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Muzinga away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Kayanza United, 1.25 for Muzinga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUZ 0–0 KAY · KAY 1–1 MUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 30 Aug

KAYANZA UNITED

DLDDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3

MUZINGA

WDWDDW3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	9	+19	21
2	Muzinga	9	+6	18
3	Rukinzo	6	+11	14
4	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Aigle Noir	8	+2	12
7	Ngozi City	8	−2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Inter Star	6	−1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1