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Kayanza United v Aigle Noir

Kayanza United

1–1Full time

Aigle Noir

Ligue A · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Kayanza United 1–1 Aigle Noir AIGLE NOIR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aigle Noir win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.947

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kayanza United win19%

Draw24%

Aigle Noir win57%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aigle noir winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Aigle Noir a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kayanza United win	19%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Aigle Noir win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Kayanza United or draw	43%	–	–
Kayanza United clean sheet	16%	–	–
Aigle Noir clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 7.1 10.6 10.1 6.3 3.1 1 5.3 11.0 9.4 5.8 2.8 2 2.9 5.0 4.5 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kayanza United down, Aigle Noir across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 Ligue A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kayanza United at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aigle Noir away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Kayanza United, 1.86 for Aigle Noir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAY 0–1 AIG · AIG 8–2 KAY · AIG 5–1 KAY · KAY 0–2 AIG

Form · last six in Ligue A

KAYANZA UNITED

WDDDLD3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

AIGLE NOIR

WWDWLW1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	5	+11	13
2	Muzinga	5	+4	10
3	Aigle Noir	5	+3	10
4	Le Messager Ngozi	4	+3	10
5	Ngozi City	5	+2	9
6	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
7	Vital'O	5	−3	8
8	Bumamuru	6	+1	7
9	Olympic Star	5	0	6
10	Flambeau du Centre	4	0	5
11	Kayanza United	5	−1	4
12	Never Give Up Academy	4	−2	4
13	Musongati	5	−4	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	6	−17	1