Inter Star v Musongati prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Inter Star 2–1 Musongati MUSONGATI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Musongati win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.883

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Musongati are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Star 24%, draw 28%, Musongati 47%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Inter Star v MusongatiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inter Star win24%

Draw28%

Musongati win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Star

Musongati

14Days since last match4

Last match: 4 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Musongati	7	0	10
15	Inter Star	4	−2	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · musongati winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:42 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Musongati a 47% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter Star v Musongati~~0.93 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug~~W0 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 10~~15 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Musongati win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Star win	24%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Musongati win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Inter Star or draw	53%	–	–
Inter Star clean sheet	25%	–	–
Musongati clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.8 12.6 9.5 4.6 1 8.0 13.0 8.5 4.1 2 4.2 5.7 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Star down, Musongati across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,250 Ligue A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter Star at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Musongati away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Inter Star, 1.43 for Musongati. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MUS 1–0 INT · INT 1–3 MUS · MUS 2–1 INT · INT 1–2 MUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug

INTER STAR

DLLD1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

MUSONGATI

DLLWWW0–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	7	−3	6
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Young Star	8	−17	3
15	Inter Star	4	−2	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1