Flambeau du Centre v Le Messager Ngozi prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Flambeau du Centre 0–1 Le Messager Ngozi FLAMBEAU DU CENTRE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flambeau du Centre win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.918

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flambeau du Centre are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flambeau du Centre 46%, draw 32%, Le Messager Ngozi 22%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Flambeau du Centre v Le Messager NgoziBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Flambeau du Centre win46%

Draw32%

Le Messager Ngozi win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flambeau du Centre

Le Messager Ngozi

4Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flambeau du centre winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Flambeau du Centre a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flambeau du Centre v Le Messager Ngozi~~1.21 – 0.75

~~Form · Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flambeau du Centre win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flambeau du Centre win	46%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Le Messager Ngozi win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Flambeau du Centre or draw	78%	–	–
Flambeau du Centre clean sheet	48%	–	–
Le Messager Ngozi clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.1%

0123450 15.7 9.8 4.0 1 16.1 13.1 4.6 2 10.2 7.4 2.8 3 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flambeau du Centre down, Le Messager Ngozi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,250 Ligue A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flambeau du Centre at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Le Messager Ngozi away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Flambeau du Centre, 0.75 for Le Messager Ngozi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLA 1–0 LEM · LEM 0–1 FLA · LEM 0–0 FLA · FLA 1–0 LEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug

FLAMBEAU DU CENTRE

DDLWLD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

LE MESSAGER NGOZI

WWDWL1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	8	+19	20
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	7	+3	12
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	7	−3	6
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Young Star	8	−17	3
15	Inter Star	4	−2	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1