Bumamuru v Vital'O prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:30

Bumamuru 3–1 Vital'O BUMAMURU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bumamuru win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bumamuru just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bumamuru 37%, draw 28%, Vital'O 35%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Bumamuru v Vital'OBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Bumamuru win37%

Draw28%

Vital'O win35%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bumamuru

Vital'O

6Days since last match11

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Vital'O	5	−3	8
10	Bumamuru	6	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bumamuru winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 10 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Bumamuru a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bumamuru v Vital'O~~1.30 – 1.26

~~Form · Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~10 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bumamuru win

Published at 36%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bumamuru win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Vital'O win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Bumamuru or draw	65%	–	–
Bumamuru clean sheet	29%	–	–
Vital'O clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.1 9.0 6.1 2.6 1 9.4 13.0 7.6 3.2 2 6.6 7.9 4.9 2.1 3 2.9 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bumamuru down, Vital'O across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,247 Ligue A matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

The last 10 meetings, in every competition we cover: 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bumamuru at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vital'O away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Bumamuru, 1.26 for Vital'O. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIT 2–1 BUM · BUM 2–1 VIT · BUM 1–1 VIT · VIT 0–1 BUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug

BUMAMURU

LDWLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–0

VITAL'O

DWDWL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	7	+19	19
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
5	Musongati	7	0	10
6	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
7	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
8	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
9	Vital'O	5	−3	8
10	Bumamuru	6	+1	7
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	6	−3	5
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Young Star	7	−17	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1