Bumamuru v Kayanza United prediction · Ligue A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BumamuruDrawKayanza United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bumamuru 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bumamuru are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bumamuru 56%, draw 24%, Kayanza United 20%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Bumamuru v Kayanza UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bumamuru win56%

Draw24%

Kayanza United win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bumamuru

Kayanza United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bumamuru winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Bumamuru a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bumamuru v Kayanza United~~1.79 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~8 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bumamuru win	56%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Kayanza United win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Bumamuru or draw	80%	–	–
Bumamuru clean sheet	39%	–	–
Kayanza United clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.5 5.6 3.0 1 10.9 11.3 5.1 2 10.1 9.4 4.5 3 6.1 5.6 2.7 4 2.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bumamuru down, Kayanza United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 Ligue A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bumamuru at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kayanza United away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Bumamuru, 0.96 for Kayanza United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUM 1–1 KAY · KAY 1–1 BUM · KAY 0–1 BUM · BUM 3–1 KAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 28 Aug

BUMAMURU

WLLWWL2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

KAYANZA UNITED

DLDDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	9	+19	21
2	Muzinga	9	+6	18
3	Rukinzo	6	+11	14
4	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Aigle Noir	8	+2	12
7	Ngozi City	8	−2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Inter Star	6	−1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1