Aigle Noir v Royal Vision prediction · Ligue A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Aigle Noir 1–1 Royal Vision AIGLE NOIR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aigle Noir win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aigle Noir are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aigle Noir 46%, draw 25%, Royal Vision 30%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Aigle Noir v Royal VisionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aigle Noir win46%

Draw25%

Royal Vision win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aigle Noir

Royal Vision

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue A

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aigle noir winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:42 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Aigle Noir a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aigle Noir v Royal Vision~~1.69 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 19~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aigle Noir win

Published at 51%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aigle Noir win	46%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Royal Vision win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Aigle Noir or draw	70%	–	–
Aigle Noir clean sheet	28%	–	–
Royal Vision clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.1 5.9 4.3 1 7.9 11.3 6.9 3.1 2 7.2 8.9 5.7 2.6 3 4.1 5.0 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aigle Noir down, Royal Vision across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,248 Ligue A matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aigle Noir at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Royal Vision away: 2.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Aigle Noir, 1.32 for Royal Vision. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ROY 2–1 AIG · AIG 2–0 ROY · ROY 0–0 AIG · AIG 2–0 ROY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 16 Aug

AIGLE NOIR

WDWLWD3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

ROYAL VISION

DWWWWW0–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 5–0 · 5–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	7	+19	19
2	Muzinga	7	+5	14
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Bumamuru	7	+3	10
5	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
6	Musongati	7	0	10
7	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
8	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
9	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
10	Vital'O	6	−5	8
11	Flambeau du Centre	6	−1	6
12	Never Give Up Academy	6	−3	5
13	Kayanza United	7	−4	5
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Young Star	7	−17	2
16	Panthere Noir	5	−5	1