Aigle Noir v Inter Star prediction · Ligue A

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Aigle Noir win65%

Draw21%

Inter Star win14%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aigle Noir

Inter Star

4Days since last match10

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aigle noir winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Aigle Noir a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aigle noir win

Published at 66%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aigle Noir win	65%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Inter Star win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Aigle Noir or draw	86%	–	–
Aigle Noir clean sheet	43%	–	–
Inter Star clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.0 4.0 2.0 1 10.2 9.7 4.0 2 11.0 9.3 4.1 3 7.8 6.5 2.8 4 4.3 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aigle Noir down, Inter Star across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,243 Ligue A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.38 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aigle Noir at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Star away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Aigle Noir, 0.87 for Inter Star. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.38

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~AIG 2–1 INT · INT 1–2 AIG · INT 0–1 AIG · AIG 1–0 INT

Form · last six in Ligue A

AIGLE NOIR

WDWLWD3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

INTER STAR

LLDLLD1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	6	+16	16
2	Muzinga	6	+5	13
3	Aigle Noir	6	+3	11
4	Le Messager Ngozi	5	+1	10
5	Olympic Star	6	+1	9
6	Ngozi City	6	−3	9
7	Rukinzo	4	+8	8
8	Vital'O	5	−3	8
9	Bumamuru	6	+1	7
10	Musongati	6	−2	7
11	Flambeau du Centre	5	−1	5
12	Kayanza United	6	−1	5
13	Never Give Up Academy	5	−3	4
14	Inter Star	4	−2	2
15	Panthere Noir	4	−3	1
16	Young Star	6	−17	1