Aigle Noir v Bumamuru prediction · Ligue A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Aigle NoirDrawBumamuru

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aigle Noir 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aigle Noir are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aigle Noir 54%, draw 25%, Bumamuru 21%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Aigle Noir v BumamuruBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Aigle Noir win54%

Draw25%

Bumamuru win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aigle Noir

Bumamuru

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligue A

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aigle Noir	8	+2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aigle noir winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Aigle Noir a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aigle Noir v Bumamuru~~1.70 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~6 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aigle Noir win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Bumamuru win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Aigle Noir or draw	79%	–	–
Aigle Noir clean sheet	39%	–	–
Bumamuru clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 8.4 6.3 3.3 1 11.4 11.8 5.3 2 10.0 9.1 4.3 3 5.7 5.2 2.4 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aigle Noir down, Bumamuru across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 Ligue A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue A matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aigle Noir at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bumamuru away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Aigle Noir, 0.95 for Bumamuru. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AIG 2–1 BUM · BUM 1–1 AIG · AIG 0–0 BUM · BUM 1–1 AIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue A this season · since 28 Aug

AIGLE NOIR

WLWDDL2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

BUMAMURU

WLLWWL2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Vision	9	+19	21
2	Muzinga	9	+6	18
3	Rukinzo	6	+11	14
4	Le Messager Ngozi	6	+2	13
5	Olympic Star	7	+3	12
6	Aigle Noir	8	+2	12
7	Ngozi City	8	−2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	+1	10
9	Musongati	8	−1	10
10	Vital'O	7	−5	9
11	Inter Star	6	−1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	−2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	−5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	−6	5
15	Young Star	8	−15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	−7	1