USFA v Comoé prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

USFA 1–0 Comoé USFA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said USFA win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.375

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USFA win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: USFA 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–31–19
1′KICK-OFF USFA v Comoé
12′A goal for USFA on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
12′We said USFA at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' USFA 1–0 Comoé
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' USFA win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
45′HALF-TIME USFA 1–0 Comoé
46′SECOND HALF USFA 1–0 Comoé
51′We said USFA at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′We said USFA at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' USFA win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
82′We said USFA at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′USFA are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 99–1–0
94′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' USFA
FTFULL TIME USFA 1–0 Comoé
FTUSFA 1–0 Comoé · USFA win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

USFA are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: USFA 50%, draw 30%, Comoé 19%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on USFA v ComoéBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

USFA win50%

Draw30%

Comoé win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

USFA

Comoé

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	USFA	5	+6	12
13	Comoé	5	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usfa winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make USFA a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · USFA v Comoé~~1.27 – 0.66

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
USFA win	50%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Comoé win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
USFA or draw	81%	–	–
USFA clean sheet	52%	–	–
Comoé clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.9%

0123450 15.2 9.3 3.2 1 17.9 12.4 4.0 2 11.5 7.5 2.5 3 4.9 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+USFA down, Comoé across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

USFA at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Comoé away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for USFA, 0.66 for Comoé. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~COM 0–0 USF · USF 3–1 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

USFA

WWWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

COMOÉ

LWLDL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	5	+6	12
2	USFA	5	+6	12
3	FocuSport	5	+1	12
4	Vitesse	5	+4	11
5	Douanes	5	+3	9
6	ASFA-Yennenga	5	+2	9
7	CFFEB	5	+4	7
8	Réal du Faso	5	+1	7
9	ASFB	5	0	7
10	Majestic	5	−2	6
11	SONABEL	5	+2	6
12	Maya	5	−2	4
13	Comoé	5	−4	4
14	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4
15	RCK	5	−7	4
16	Salitas	5	−9	1