USFA v ASFA-Yennenga prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:11

USFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga USFA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said USFA win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.930

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USFA win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: USFA was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–34–22
17′A goal for ASFA-Yennenga on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–27–60
19′We said USFA at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–27–60
23′22′ and it is 0–2: ASFA-Yennenga have scored. 0–2 · 3–9–88
25′We said USFA at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' ASFA-Yennenga win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was USFA win 13%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' USFA win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' ASFA-Yennenga win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was USFA win 13%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' USFA 0–3 ASFA-Yennenga
45′HALF-TIME USFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga
45′⚽ GOAL · 15' USFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' USFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga
45′⚽ GOAL · 42' USFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga
46′SECOND HALF USFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga
90′🟥 RED CARD · 97' ASFA-Yennenga
FTFULL TIME USFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga
FTUSFA 1–2 ASFA-Yennenga · USFA win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:32 · locked at kick-off

USFA win43%

Draw35%

ASFA-Yennenga win21%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

USFA

ASFA-Yennenga

8Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	USFA	3	+6	9
6	ASFA-Yennenga	3	+2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usfa winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make USFA a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
USFA win	43%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
ASFA-Yennenga win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	22%	–	–
Both teams to score	29%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	48%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	8%	–	–
USFA or draw	79%	–	–
USFA clean sheet	54%	–	–
ASFA-Yennenga clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.7%

0123450 20.7 11.6 3.8 1 19.2 12.6 3.7 2 9.9 6.0 3 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+USFA down, ASFA-Yennenga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Ligue 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

USFA at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). ASFA-Yennenga away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for USFA, 0.61 for ASFA-Yennenga. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2020

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 12

~~Both scored~~4 of 12

~~Last meetings~~USF 2–0 ASF · ASF 0–1 USF · USF 1–1 ASF · ASF 1–1 USF

Form · last six in Ligue 1

USFA

DDWWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

ASFA-YENNENGA

LLLWLW2–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	USFA	3	+6	9
2	Rahimo	4	+4	9
3	FocuSport	4	0	9
4	Vitesse	4	+3	8
5	SONABEL	4	+3	6
6	ASFA-Yennenga	3	+2	6
7	Majestic	4	−1	6
8	Réal du Faso	3	+1	4
9	Maya	3	0	4
10	CFFEB	4	−1	4
11	ASFB	4	−2	4
12	Comoé	4	−2	4
13	Sporting Cascades	4	−3	4
14	Douanes	3	−1	3
15	RCK	3	−3	1
16	Salitas	4	−6	1