Sporting Cascades v Maya prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Sporting Cascades 4–1 Maya SPORTING CASCADES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Cascades win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.568

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Cascades win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting Cascades was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–33–28
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Cascades v Maya
16′Sporting Cascades find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
16′We published Sporting Cascades at 39%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Sporting Cascades 1–0 Maya
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Sporting Cascades win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
20′A goal for Sporting Cascades on 20′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
20′We published Sporting Cascades at 39%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Sporting Cascades 2–0 Maya
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Sporting Cascades win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
28′M. Zongo scores for Sporting Cascades on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
36′We published Sporting Cascades at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
43′Sporting Cascades score on 43′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Sporting Cascades 3–0 Maya
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Sporting Cascades win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Cascades 4–0 Maya
46′Sporting Cascades find the net on 45′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Sporting Cascades 4–0 Maya
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Cascades 4–0 Maya
47′We published Sporting Cascades at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
48′4 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
62′A goal for Maya on 62′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Sporting Cascades 4–1 Maya
63′S. Sana scores for Maya on 61′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sporting Cascades 4–1 Maya
FTSporting Cascades 4–1 Maya · Sporting Cascades win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Cascades are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Cascades 39%, draw 33%, Maya 29%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Cascades v MayaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Cascades win39%

Draw33%

Maya win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Banfora

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Cascades

Maya

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Maya	5	−2	4
14	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cascades winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Sporting Cascades a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Cascades v Maya~~1.02 – 0.83

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Cascades win	39%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Maya win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Sporting Cascades or draw	71%	–	–
Sporting Cascades clean sheet	44%	–	–
Maya clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.3%

0123450 16.3 12.6 5.5 1 15.5 13.5 5.5 2 8.1 6.7 2.8 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Cascades down, Maya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sporting Cascades at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Maya away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Sporting Cascades, 0.83 for Maya. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

SPORTING CASCADES

DWLLL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–3

MAYA

LDWLL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	5	+6	12
2	USFA	5	+6	12
3	FocuSport	5	+1	12
4	Vitesse	5	+4	11
5	Douanes	5	+3	9
6	ASFA-Yennenga	5	+2	9
7	CFFEB	5	+4	7
8	Réal du Faso	5	+1	7
9	ASFB	5	0	7
10	Majestic	5	−2	6
11	SONABEL	5	+2	6
12	Maya	5	−2	4
13	Comoé	5	−4	4
14	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4
15	RCK	5	−7	4
16	Salitas	5	−9	1