SONABEL v Vitesse prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

SONABEL 0–1 Vitesse SONABEL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SONABEL win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.744

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SONABEL win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: SONABEL was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–34–30
1′KICK-OFF SONABEL v Vitesse
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was SONABEL win 34%)
27′Vitesse find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
27′We said SONABEL at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' SONABEL 0–1 Vitesse
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' SONABEL win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Vitesse win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–23–69
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' SONABEL win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
45′HALF-TIME SONABEL 0–1 Vitesse
46′SECOND HALF SONABEL 0–1 Vitesse
54′We said SONABEL at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
FTFULL TIME SONABEL 0–1 Vitesse
FTSONABEL 0–1 Vitesse · SONABEL win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SONABEL just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SONABEL 37%, draw 34%, Vitesse 30%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on SONABEL v VitesseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

SONABEL win37%

Draw34%

Vitesse win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade de la SONABEL

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SONABEL

Vitesse

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vitesse	4	+3	8
7	SONABEL	4	+3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sonabel winFirst published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make SONABEL a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SONABEL v Vitesse~~0.97 – 0.84

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SONABEL win	37%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Vitesse win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
SONABEL or draw	70%	–	–
SONABEL clean sheet	44%	–	–
Vitesse clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.3%

0123450 17.3 13.2 5.8 1 15.3 13.6 5.5 2 7.7 6.3 2.7 3 2.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SONABEL down, Vitesse across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SONABEL at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vitesse away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for SONABEL, 0.84 for Vitesse. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIT 2–0 SON · SON 1–2 VIT · SON 0–0 VIT · VIT 1–3 SON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 18 Sept

SONABEL

LLWW0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 3–0

VITESSE

DWWD2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	5	+6	12
2	USFA	5	+6	12
3	ASFA-Yennenga	4	+3	9
4	FocuSport	4	0	9
5	Vitesse	4	+3	8
6	ASFB	5	0	7
7	SONABEL	4	+3	6
8	Douanes	4	0	6
9	Majestic	5	−2	6
10	Maya	4	−1	4
11	RCK	4	−2	4
12	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4
13	Réal du Faso	4	0	4
14	CFFEB	4	−1	4
15	Comoé	5	−4	4
16	Salitas	4	−6	1