Salitas v Douanes prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Salitas 1–4 Douanes DOUANES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Douanes win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Douanes win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Douanes 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 30–30–41
1′KICK-OFF Salitas v Douanes
16′Douanes find the net on 15′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
16′We said Douanes at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Salitas 0–1 Douanes
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Douanes win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–19–73
40′We said Douanes at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′HALF-TIME Salitas 0–1 Douanes
46′SECOND HALF Salitas 0–1 Douanes
59′We said Douanes at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Douanes win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
65′A goal for Salitas on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–59–23
65′We said Douanes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 18–59–23
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Salitas 1–1 Douanes
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Douanes win: 41% at kick-off, 23% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Douanes win 23%)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Douanes win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
71′We said Douanes at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
73′H. Simde scores for Salitas on 64′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–68–18
73′Douanes score on 73′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Salitas 1–2 Douanes
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Douanes win: 41% at kick-off, 86% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Douanes win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
74′We said Douanes at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
74′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–12–87
79′We said Douanes at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
80′Douanes find the net on 80′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–99
80′We said Douanes at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–99
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–99
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Douanes win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Salitas 1–3 Douanes
81′We said Douanes at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′A goal for Douanes on 86′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Salitas 1–4 Douanes
88′5 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Salitas 1–4 Douanes
FTSalitas 1–4 Douanes · Douanes win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Douanes are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salitas 30%, draw 30%, Douanes 41%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Salitas v DouanesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

Salitas win30%

Draw30%

Douanes win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade du 4 Aout

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salitas

Douanes

9Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Burkina Faso)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Douanes	4	0	6
16	Salitas	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · douanes winFirst published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Douanes a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salitas v Douanes~~1.01 – 1.24

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 6~~16 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salitas win	30%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Douanes win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Salitas or draw	59%	–	–
Salitas clean sheet	30%	–	–
Douanes clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.4 12.5 8.0 3.4 1 10.2 13.5 7.9 3.3 2 5.4 6.5 4.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salitas down, Douanes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salitas at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Douanes away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Salitas, 1.24 for Douanes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAL 2–1 DOU · DOU 2–2 SAL · DOU 0–2 SAL · SAL 0–2 DOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 19 Sept

SALITAS

DLLL2–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

DOUANES

LLWW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rahimo	5	+6	12
2	USFA	5	+6	12
3	ASFA-Yennenga	4	+3	9
4	FocuSport	4	0	9
5	Vitesse	4	+3	8
6	ASFB	5	0	7
7	SONABEL	4	+3	6
8	Douanes	4	0	6
9	Majestic	5	−2	6
10	Maya	4	−1	4
11	RCK	4	−2	4
12	Sporting Cascades	5	−5	4
13	Réal du Faso	4	0	4
14	CFFEB	4	−1	4
15	Comoé	5	−4	4
16	Salitas	4	−6	1